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George Bush's peace plan

The Road To Nowhere

BUSH'S 'ROAD map' faces a major diversion. Not least because of Ariel Sharon's 'roadblock'.

The hardline, right-wing Israeli Prime Minister has, ahead of any published plan, ruled out a viable, independent Palestinian state. Sharon says Israel will retain control of the Palestinian state's external security, borders, airspace and underground water resources, and will have a veto over treaties with other countries. A Palestinian police force would be lightly armed.

How much this would be an advance for Palestinians over the existing situation, the US administration has not explained.

Bush had also made it clear that any political settlement is conditional upon the appointment of a US-approved Palestinian Prime Minister and the sidelining of the PLO chairman and Palestinian Authority president, Yasser Arafat.

Subsequently Arafat's deputy, Mohammed Abbas, has now been chosen by the Palestinian parliament as the new PM. Abbas is considered acceptable to the Bush administration as a 'moderate' Palestinian leader.

However, the Islamic organisations have made it clear they will not subordinate themselves to his authority, and among the Palestinian masses he is seen as a representative of the corrupt ruling clique, the "Tunis gang".

An open prison

MEANWHILE, A 230-mile wall and fence extending the length of the West Bank territory is being constructed by the Israeli army. This new border will slice into Palestinian territory, reducing the Palestinian Authority-run area of the West Bank by up to 50%. Jewish settlements, many established 'illegally', are likely become part of an enlarged Israel.

The securing of road access and water supplies to these settlements means that the Palestinian Authority (PA) areas are already criss-crossed by Israel Defence Force (IDF) checkpoints, making the Palestinians little more than prisoners in an open prison.

For example, residents of Al Mawasi in the Gaza strip can only bring in food supplies through an IDF military checkpoint if the military allows them. The United Nations World Food Programme has been stopped from supplying staple foods to Al Mawasi since January and MŽdecins sans Fronti�res has not been able to supply medicines for over one month. These checkpoints also mean that an economically viable Palestinian state is impossible.

Low-intensity war

The IDF is waging a low-intensity war against Palestinian militias and the remnants of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority forces. Heavily armed convoys of Israeli troops backed by helicopter gunships and jet fighters routinely invade Palestinian areas in the West Bank and Gaza, usually with deadly consequences.

Last week a US peace activist was, according to eyewitnesses, deliberately crushed by an Israeli army bulldozer which was destroying the homes of Israeli designated "terrorists".

Palestinian civilians are routinely killed by Israeli forces out to assassinate Palestinian militants belonging to guerrilla groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Brigades. In February alone, according to Palestinian sources, 77 Palestinians were killed in the occupied territories, including 12 less than 18 years old, and 725 were wounded (among them 220 children).

With the ruling clique of Arafat's crumbling PA (as well as other secular and former 'Left' organisations) failing to provide a viable strategy for the second Intifada (uprising), based on mass popular resistance, significant sections of the bitter and desperate Palestinian masses support suicide bombings in Israel as "the only way to hit back" and avenge the growing death toll.

Repression 

The continued repression and constant pressure by the IDF and Shin Bet (security service), and the numerous arrests, incursions and executions prevent most of the planned bombings but only at the price of perpetuating the burning motivation that must eventually lead to a bomber succeeding.

The new Israeli government's knee-jerk reaction to the recent Haifa bus bombing fell short of the often repeated threats by Sharon and other leading cabinet members to deport Arafat, (probably due to reluctance to embarrass the Bush administration by distracting international attention from Iraq). Instead, another incursion into the Gaza Strip was authorised, despite the fact that the last suicide bomber came from Hebron in the West Bank.

Large numbers of the Israeli Defence Forces entered the Jabalya refugee camp, reportedly to apprehend a medium-level Hamas militant. In the gun battles that ensued, a fire broke out in a store, and when people tried to extinguish the fire and treat previous casualties, a tank shell hit the crowded area, killing eight civilians and wounding more than a hundred.

In the well-worn tradition of recent years, actions by armed Palestinian groups are answered by overwhelming and brutal Israeli state terrorism, and vice versa.

Ending the war, realising a Palestinian state, guaranteeing a secure Israel, ending the region's poverty, is beyond the capabilities of the ruling classes and their capitalist system. Only socialist movements of the Palestinians and of the Israeli working classes, by overthrowing captalism and landlordism, can establish a genuine road to peace.

• For a more detailed examination of the Middle East conflict and the socialist answer to the region's problems of nations and nationalities, see our archive, and the CWI

•  Also, for more on Israel's class struggles see www.maavak.org.il

Sharon's second government of crisis

AFTER WEEKS of negotiation Sharon has managed to form a right-wing government. But this does not guarantee any lasting stability. It faces the same problems that toppled the last two governments - the bitter, brutal conflict with the Palestinians and the deepening economic crisis - and clearly it has no more answers than its predecessors.

Ariel, Ma'avak Sozialisti - CWI, Israel

Hardened attitudes on both sides of the national divide and the ongoing war of attrition between the IDF and Palestinian armed groups make a political settlement unlikely in the coming period.

Overall, this government has a more uniform rightwing character, both politically and economically. But there is also the possibility of Labour crawling back to government using the pretext of war in Iraq or a major wave of bombings, especially if Mitzna resigns from the Labour leadership.

A third year of recession

ON THE economic front, Sharon has promised "difficult and painful decisions for us all".

The deteriorating economic crisis and its social consequences is preparing the way for big upheavals. The Israeli economy is now in a third consecutive year of recession, with no signs of improvement. Official unemployment is close to 11%, but the real figure is much higher and still climbing.

Israel's Finance Ministry (headed by former PM and reactionary, Benjamin Netanyahu), says the US has offered $10 billion to bail out the country; the US says it is only being "considered". Israel is the biggest recipient of US aid worldwide.

With consumption and other economic activity depressed, government revenues have taken a sharp fall, creating a gaping hole in the budget - a 6% deficit. The ruling class' solution, of course, will be even bigger cuts.

Since benefits and allowances have been cut several times over the last two years, and defence expenditure is not likely to be cut significantly, the new targets are public sector workers. Treasury plans include sacking up to 70,000 workers (10% of the public workforce), with an additional cut of up to 10% in the wages of remaining workers.

This would entail the breaking of collective wage agreements that still defend most workers, and the Treasury is ready to pass special legislation for that purpose.

Since this is a direct attack on the Histadrut's (the Israeli trade union federation) main power base, even its tame leaders will be forced to wage a struggle, and might be pushed from below to go further than they wish. A general strike, at least in the public sector, is almost inevitable at some point.

How long will the Coalition last?

ALL THINGS considered, the new government, at least in its current composition, is not likely to survive for a longer period than its predecessors. It will face growing resistance to its 'neo-liberal' social policies, and bloody stalemate in the conflict with the Palestinians will continue.

Sharon and the Israeli ruling class can be expected to whip up nationalism in order to deflect anger at rising poverty and unemployment, but this cannot succeed indefinitely.

The coming period will see major struggles by workers, unemployed and the poor, both Jewish and Arab. There will be many opportunities for the members of Ma'avak Sozialisti (CWI, Israel) to grow and increase our impact by energetically intervening in the class struggle and in the struggle against the occupation. Our ideas and methods are the only ones which can offer a way out - the socialist alternative to war and slump.