FOLLOWING THE catastrophic, though not unexpected, election result in the region of North Rhine Westphalia, the German social democrat (SDP) Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, announced an early general election for September 2005.

Tanja Niemeier

After thirty-nine years in power, the SPD will no longer be represented in the government of its former heartland and most populous regional state. The CDU (Christian Democratic Union), the main opposition party, benefited most from the more than 6% increase in turn-out. (63%, compared to 56.7% in 2000) With 44.8% of the vote, they gained an extra one million votes.

This by no means reflects high hopes for a CDU-led government but rather a determination to make the SPD reap what they have sown - the implementation of the most vicious and anti-working class policy since the end of the Second World War and the dismantling of the welfare state.

While the SPD's total vote only went down by 83,373 they were not capable of mobilising enough voters to prevent the dramatic squeeze in votes percentage-wise. While their share of the overall vote dropped by 5.7%, it dropped by 9% amongst workers and trade unionists.

Many working-class people welcomed the SPD leadership's adoption of a more anti-capitalist rhetoric in the last few weeks, attacking greedy "locusts". But at the same time, they did not trust the SPD.

Future attacks

THE SPD is facing a severe crisis, stumbling from one electoral defeat to another, and they have come under pressure from various sides.

The bosses in Germany want to see further attacks on the welfare state and in the workplaces. They want to create an even larger low-wage sector and get rid of the labour laws which they still regard as too rigid.

In the eyes of the bosses, the SPD is no longer their most reliable ally to push through any further attacks.

The SPD has also come under pressure from the so-called left within its own ranks. Oskar Lafontaine, former finance minister of the first term Schröder government who resigned from that post as a consequence of Schröder's neo-liberal policy, is openly saying he would join a new formation which involved both the PDS/WASG parties (see below). He has a lot of authority amongst wide layers of the working class.

Further attacks

Given the dire economic situation and a further drop in tax revenues, the government knows that they have to implement further attacks. By autumn 2006, the initial date for the general election, they would have been even more exposed and hated. Such a time delay would have given the WASG enough time to develop more of a national profile and to develop into more of a substantial force, which the SPD clearly does not want to see happening.

The SPD, and trade union leaders will campaign on the basis that they are the "lesser evil", but this does not at all take into account that the biggest drop in post-1945 living standards has been brought about by this SPD led government!

On the other hand, Schröder and Co. think that by going back into opposition, it will give them some breathing space to get the party back under control.

Even if taken by surprise by Schröder's decision, the CDU stands every chance of winning these elections. In opinion polls, they are receiving up to nearly 50% of the vote.

But the ruling class could underestimate the the huge anger and dissatisfaction that exists amongst the working class with any of the established parties.

A CDU government would attempt to increase attacks on the working class and would undoubtedly be confronted with an increase in struggles including major clashes with the trade unions. Unlike under a SPD government, the trade union leadership would find it difficult to keep workers in check as a CDU-led government attacked living standards.

The economic situation will lead to greater turmoil and instability. As these elections have shown, events can and will change very rapidly in the near future. This will provide the workers' movement with great challenges and big opportunities.

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