AS ISRAELI missiles continued to bombard Lebanon, an immediate
ceasefire was demanded by an emergency demonstration of 100,000 people
in London on 5 August.
Jenny Brooks
Also, reflecting the anger of people in Britain and internationally
at George Bush and Tony Blair’s refusal to call for a ceasefire, almost
a third of the parliamentary Labour Party – over 110 Labour MPs – signed
a petition calling for an immediate ceasefire. That number would be
enough to wipe out Blair’s majority in parliament, which illustrates,
once again, the weakness of his position.
Blair claimed in a recent speech on the Middle East: "We could have
chosen security as the battleground. But we didn’t, we chose values." So
his original reason for the Iraq war, which was ‘security’ against
weapons of mass destruction (which did not even exist in Iraq) is now
dismissed. And values? How many people support Bush and Blair’s values
which have led to 100 deaths per day in Iraq and their backing of the
Israeli state terror offensive in Lebanon?
The Israeli regime and its army chiefs are becoming increasingly
desperate as their brutal bombing of Lebanon is failing to stop
Hezbollah rockets hitting Israel. As well as continuing to pound south
Lebanese villages and southern Beirut, Israeli Defence Force (IDF)
shells have hit new areas, including the bridges in a Christian area of
north Beirut. It was unlikely that there were Hezbollah fighters in that
area.
There have been many missile hits on civilians, including the
terrible Qana massacre, where over 40 were killed, and a strike on a
group of mainly Syrian Kurdish farm workers, killing 33. Over 900
Lebanese people have been killed (a third of them children), and one
million forced to flee their homes. Attempts to reach displaced, trapped
and injured people with aid have been severely hampered by Israeli
bombing of key roads and bridges. Diseases are starting to spread among
people who have had their water supplies destroyed by missiles.
Savage war
The toll in Israel, while much less, at 94 deaths and 300,000 people
displaced, has caused great suffering to those worst affected and is a
blow to the Israeli regime that it did not expect.
Israeli Jewish people overwhelmingly support the war so far. But they
were assured at the start of it that Hezbollah would soon be eliminated,
yet Hezbollah’s resistance remains strong.
So Israeli ministers changed their propaganda to say that Hezbollah
can only be weakened, not completely defeated, which has led to
widespread questioning of their strategy. This will turn into outright
opposition if the war continues for a prolonged period.
This savage war will bring no security to Israeli Jews, and is a
nightmare for hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon. The building
of the anti-war movement internationally and in Israel is urgent, to
bring a halt to it as soon as possible.
Serious predicament
THE ISRAELI capitalist class is in a very serious predicament.
Throughout its existence as the ruling class of a Jewish state founded
on Palestinian land and surrounded by Arab states, it has depended on
military strength for its security. In between wars, it has relied on
the ‘deterrence’ of having a strong military force, thanks to the
dollars and arms supplies of US imperialism.
Yet now, it is faced with an inability to defeat the much
lesser-armed guerrilla force, Hezbollah, with the consequence that its
image of invincibility will be seriously damaged. As Peter Beaumont in
the Observer put it: "The Israeli army, the world’s fourth most
powerful, is driven back by the fierce resistance of shepherds, farmers
and mechanics who are not afraid to die."
The IDF did not expect the degree of resistance it is facing.
Hezbollah is better armed and trained as a military force compared to
the Palestinian militias that the IDF has been fighting in Gaza and the
West Bank. Also unwelcome to the Israeli regime is that Hezbollah’s
standing in Lebanon and the wider Middle East has been much boosted by
its resistance to the Israeli onslaught. It now has unprecedented
prestige among both Shia and Sunni Muslims.
Reflecting its dilemma, there are growing divisions at the top of
Israeli society over the IDF’s performance and strategy. The Israeli
government’s aim is to take control of a strip of south Lebanon of up to
20 kilometres, to prevent Hezbollah from operating there. However, the
IDF is struggling to take some of the villages in that zone – even after
flattening them from the air.
This failure is leading the Israeli generals to escalate the war, to
try to get more concrete gains, before they come under international
pressure for a ceasefire. Shelling is being stepped up further and the
IDF ground force in Lebanon – presently 10,000 troops – may well be
increased.
A senior IDF officer told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz: "We are now
in a process of renewed escalation. We will continue hitting everything
that moves as Hezbollah – but we will also hit strategic civilian
infrastructure."
Hezbollah, on its part, is continuing to fire rockets into Israel and
has threatened to send them as far as Tel Aviv. Escalation of the war
might not stop at the Lebanese borders; there is the constant danger of
the surrounding countries being drawn in, worsening the situation even
further.
International talks
A United Nations (UN) ceasefire plan drawn up by government
representatives of the US, France and Britain was condemned by the
Lebanese government and other Arab governments, as "no less than the
adoption by the international community of Israel’s position". It did
not mention an immediate ceasefire and so would allow Israel to continue
its offensive. It also proposed that Israeli soldiers could remain in
south Lebanon until an international force can take over from them.
This would mean that the people who have fled their villages in south
Lebanon would not be able to return in the foreseeable future. And with
Israeli or other foreign troops occupying Lebanese land, Hezbollah’s
armed struggle would continue.
At the time of writing this article, the possible imposition of an
international force (which would be doing the bidding of the world
capitalist powers which all have interests in the region), is still some
time off. France, which has put itself forward as the backbone of a
future ground force, has said it will not enter Lebanon without a
ceasefire in place.
However, if an international presence eventually goes in, if it acts
to undermine or disarm Hezbollah, it will be seen as an occupying force
and will face attacks by Hezbollah and other militias wanting to resist
occupation and hit back at the US and Israel. US and British troops
occupying Iraq have faced many attacks, and the ‘peace-keeping’ role of
the United Nations in Baghdad did not prevent it from having its
compound bombed in August 2003, forcing its withdrawal.
US loss of power
For US imperialism, the present situation in the Middle East is
disastrous. Far from reducing the influence of Iran, the state it
branded as "evil", Iran’s power in the region has increased.
One major factor in this is the dominance in Iraq now of Iran’s Shia
allies, brought about by the US invasion of Iraq. Aware of the mood of
Iraqi workers, leading Iraqi Shias have spoken out against US backing
for Israel, and Iraq’s Shia prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, has not
condemned Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iraqi Shias now increasingly
accuse the US of siding with Sunnis, as the US tries desperately to
correct some of the mistakes it made following its invasion of Iraq,
when Sunnis were heavily discriminated against.
The pro-Western Sunni Arab leaders in countries like Egypt and Jordan
are caught between huge pressure from below, from populations who see
their ruling elites doing nothing to help the Lebanese or Palestinian
people, and trying to defend their own privileges and wealth. They also
fear the rise of Shia Iran as a regional power, in the jostling of the
Arab and Iranian elites for the resources of the region.
While Bush and Blair fall ever lower in opinion polls in their
countries, the Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah leaders are able to benefit
from their anti-imperialist stance to gain increased support.
After the Qana massacre in Lebanon, while the Lebanese government
made it clear that US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice was not
welcome in Beirut, the Iranian foreign minister was welcomed to the city
and thanked for sending equipment and supplies.
Precedents
The Beirut-based journalist Robert Fisk, wrote that "extraordinary
precedents are being set in this Lebanon war". He included as one of the
profound changes taking place, "the growing unwillingness of Arabs to be
afraid" and that: "Their leaders – our ‘moderate’ pro-Western Arab
leaders such as King Abdullah of Jordan and President Mubarak of Egypt –
may be afraid. But their people are not. And once a people have lost
their terror, they cannot be re-injected with fear."
The Lebanon war is igniting massive outrage and protest throughout
the Arab and Muslim world. The biggest demonstration was in war-torn
Baghdad, where hundreds of thousands of Shia turned out to condemn the
Israeli offensive. But other repressive Middle Eastern regimes, where
demonstrations are illegal, are also struggling to keep a lid on huge
levels of anger.
While the Lebanese people suffer acutely – especially the poorest who
don’t have the cars or money to flee – and the lives of many Israeli
workers are devastated by rocket attacks, the Arab elites have their eye
on rich pickings from the war.
The head of Bahrain-based Arcapita bank said: "In a paradoxical way,
war in the broader region could have a positive impact by driving the
oil price even higher." They are also hoping to gain from the exodus of
skilled workers from Lebanon and eventually from reconstruction
contracts in Lebanon.
Capitalism throughout the globe can only offer war, terror and
poverty, whether directly or by proxy. As well as building the anti-war
movement in every country, it is essential to spread socialist ideas in
these movements. This must include the need for democratic workers’
unity and defence across all ethnic, national and religious divides in
war-torn countries and areas like Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian
territories, together with implacable opposition to capitalism.
The Israeli working class also has the vital task of building its own
independent workers’ party and developing socialist ideas within it, as
the only force capable of removing the Israeli ruling class which
attacks the living standards of Israeli workers and brings great
suffering to the Palestinian and Lebanese people.
