Polarisation widens in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland elections: Polarisation widens

NORTHERN IRELAND’S general election results confirmed what the Socialist
Party expected – that two main sectarian blocks would dominate. Within those
blocks, the Paisleyite DUP and Sinn Fein gained at the expense of Trimble’s
UUP and SDLP respectively.

Peter Hadden, Belfast Socialist Party, spoke to the socialist.

Both at the Westminster and local elections there has been quite a meltdown
of UUP votes and seats in the Protestant areas. This formerly dominant party
was reduced to one Westminster seat. And this carried through in the local
elections.

On the Catholic side, there has been a distinct growth of Sinn Fein at the
more ‘moderate’ SDLP’s expense. True, the SDLP held three Westminster seats
but within that they lost one seat to Sinn Fein and only won one seat from the
UUP because the unionist voters were split between UUP and DUP.

There’s not as much anger against the SDLP in Catholic areas as there is
against the UUP in Protestant areas where the UUP are seen as responsible for
the Northern Ireland Assembly. But the gradual hollowing out of SDLP support
continues.

The killing of Robert McCartney, widely blamed on Sinn Fein members, also
slowed down Sinn Fein’s growth. It didn’t hit their core vote, nor stop their
advance against SDLP. But it probably persuaded some voters to stay with the
SDLP or other parties.

In East Belfast, the one Sinn Fein councillor for the Short Strand area
lost his seat and the small Alliance Party picked up that seat on transferred
votes. No doubt Robert McCartney’s killing had an effect there.

The smaller parties that grew in the peace process during the 1990s, such
as the Women’s Coalition and the PUP, have all been obliterated in this vote.
It’s now down to four parties with two main parties emerging. It’s a massive
unionist bloc and a huge nationalist bloc.

It’s so polarised that it’s going to be hard for the government to conjure
up a restoration of the Assembly – it could be three years before they even
get serious negotiations going and the Assembly elected. If they did that
they’d have to have another election to cement the deal and that would
probably produce a similar result.

The government will push for negotiations in the autumn but it’s
questionable whether it will get anywhere because the election reflects the
reality of polarisation on the ground.

There was a high abstention rate and, as in Britain, this was more than
just apathy. It was hostility to establishment politics. Turnouts were low,
particularly by Northern Ireland standards. There were 90,000 fewer people
voting than in 2001 because the registers have been pared back and because of
the higher abstention.

People were hostile to all politicians because of the feeling that nothing
was going to come out of it. Low turnouts and disillusionment at politicians
were particularly common in working-class areas, especially the protestant
working class.

Socialist Party

THE SOCIALIST Party did not stand in the general election but we were
really happy with our campaign in the local elections. We got a very good
response around the doors, much better than we got in the Assembly elections.

This was particularly thanks to the issues we raised such as opposition to
the water charges being brought into Northern Ireland.

In Enniskillen we got 406 first preference votes – about 5% of the vote.
For someone standing for the first time and where we only had six weeks or so
to campaign, this was very creditable. Another 150 votes plus transfers could
have put us in with a chance of winning a seat.

In a very sectarian contest in Mid-Ulster in Cookstown we got 84 votes
(about 2% in a much smaller seat).

In Pottinger in east Belfast, where we were campaigning against UUP and DUP
luminaries, we got 163 votes (about 1.5%). In the Assembly elections we only
got 171 votes in the whole of Belfast East so we almost trebled our percentage
vote. We weren’t bottom in any of the seats. We’re still awaiting the result
from Lagan Valley.

In a future issue Peter Hadden talks to the socialist about fighting for
workers’ unity in a polarised society.