Iraq: Coalition plans floundering

SEVERAL WEEKS ago the US and British governments were talking up in
the media how Iraq’s security situation was improving. Today there is an
air of desperation in Washington and London as Iraq’s death toll in May
exceeded 700, as well as 70 US troops.

The increasing violence and armed rebellion against the police and
the US-led occupation forces since the new Iraqi government was sworn
in, prompted US secretary of state Condoleeza Rice to pay a flying visit
to Baghdad.

She urged Iraq’s prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari to accommodate the
disaffected Sunni community into the government. This won’t be easy
since the constitution-drafting committee is dominated by Shias and
Kurds. Moreover, the political differences between the Shia and the
Kurdish parties remain as wide as ever. In the meantime there has been a
sharp rise in sectarian assassinations of Sunnis and Shias.

The Iraq Defence Minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi announced last week a
"crackdown on terrorism" called "Operation
Lightning" – a fortified ‘ring of steel’ around the capital
Baghdad, maintained by some 40,000 Iraqi troops and backed by 10,000 US
troops.

This act appears to be aimed more at bolstering the sagging morale of
the Iraqi security forces than practically deterring suicide bombers.
Not least since most of the fighting in recent weeks has been outside of
Baghdad in the western provinces and along the Syrian border. Moreover,
many Iraqis question why Operation Lightning was announced three days
before its implementation, giving plenty of time for any bombers to
escape.

With the nationalist and Islamist-based insurgency showing no signs
of abating and with the growing disaffection of the regime by broad
swathes of Iraqis angered by the widespread unemployment, poverty and
crumbling public services, the US-led coalition is floundering. And with
increasing domestic opposition to the occupation, Bush and Blair appear
to be running out of options.