Iraq – a country splitting along sectarian lines

FOR GEORGE Bush and Tony Blair, the architects of ‘regime change’ in
Iraq, their swift victory over Saddam Hussein in 2003 must seem like
another era as the country descends into sectarian conflict and chaos.

All their political initiatives – from elections, to a new
constitution, a new government and a ‘reconstruction’ programme – has
resulted in a fracturing rather then a unification of Iraq. This was
spelt out in a leaked memo sent to the Blair government by the outgoing
British ambassador to Baghdad, William Patey. He says the country is
closer to civil war and partition rather than democracy.

This doom laden analysis was echoed by general John Abizaid, the head
of US central command, to a US Senate committee: "I believe that the
sectarian violence is probably as bad as I’ve seen it in Baghdad in
particular, and that if it could not be stopped, it is possible that
Iraq could move toward civil war," he said.

Bush and Blair downplayed these critical assessments with a less than
convincing – ‘we’ve got to see the job through’ – response. But their
real concerns were revealed when a further 3,700 US troops were rushed
to Baghdad. An estimated 100 Iraqi civilians die in the city every day
despite the presence of 50,000 soldiers.

At the end of July the US military recorded a daily average of 34
bombing and shooting attacks in Baghdad, up from the daily average of 24
attacks a month ago. A recent United Nations report said 14,338
civilians had died in the first six months of 2006. Deaths jumped from
2,669 in May to 3,149 in June.

The redeployment also underlines the fact that the Iraqi security
apparatus is heavy infiltrated by Shia militia who have been accused of
running sectarian death squads.

And in what should make further unpalatable reading for Bush and
Blair, Patey drew a parallel between Iraq and Lebanon, saying that the
occupying powers must prevent Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s militia
becoming "a state within a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon".