IN THE eyes of the occupying powers, the new Iraqi constitution was
meant to be an important step in the direction of a "sovereign and free"
Iraq. British and US imperialism in particular were also hoping to
present it as a stepping stone towards a way out of a war, whose
unpopularity is central to the crisis facing the Bush
administration.
Tanja Niemeier
None of this is materialising. The situation
on the ground is becoming more dangerous by the day and the divisions
between the different ethnic and religious groupings in the country have
never been sharper.
Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, declared the constitution
passed long before even any official results had been published! This
indicates just how desperate the ruling elites are to deliver any
‘progress’ in the nightmare situation of Iraq. However, the outcome of
the referendum was overshadowed by the news that the death toll of US
soldiers had reached 2,000.
October was the most violent month in Iraq so far this year. Many of
the ingredients are there for a possible descent into civil war and
break up of the country.
Constitution vote
The published results give 78.59% in favour of the constitution and
21.41% against. In order to prevent the constitution from being passed
three out of 18 provinces needed a two-thirds majority against. Two
Sunni dominated provinces, Anbar and Salaheddin, voted against the
constitution with a large majority. In Ninive, another Sunni province,
55% voted against, just short of a two-thirds majority. Only another
38,000 votes against would have rendered the constitution void. Sunni
political opponents claim foul play.
Moreover, reports suggest that many people, including Shias and
Kurds, who voted in favour of the constitution did so not because they
support the content of the constitution but because they hope this
brings them closer to a withdrawal of the occupying forces.
In essence, the constitution favoured by the Shia and Kurdish
political elites is a recipe for fostering the divisions amongst the
different ethnic and religious groupings. US and British imperialism
hope to be able to make deals with the Shia and Kurdish elites. The
corrupt Kurdish politicians and leaders of the PUK and KDP are amongst
the only ones the occupying forces can rely on. A province made up of
the oil-rich area of Mosul and Kirkuk under the reliable control of the
PUK and KDP plays into the hands of imperialism.
Although not to the same degree, this would also apply to a Shia
province which would control the Rumayla oil fields. The Sunnis would
not have control over any oil or gas fields and therefore most of the
Sunni parties with the exception of the Iraqi Islamic Party campaigned
for a ‘No’ vote or called for a boycott altogether.
None of the political parties or organisations in the different parts
of Iraq, be it Sunni, Shia or Kurdish represent the interests of the
working class and poor peasants. They are engaged in a power struggle
over the resources and the wealth of the country and how to divide them
up.
The Iraqi working class and poor are losing out again. And while
there may be some hopes and illusions on the part of the Shia and
Kurdish population, those will be very short lived. Under capitalism,
even if there was a shift towards formal domestic control over the oil
and gas reserves, the revenues would still flow into the pockets of
foreign, multinational companies and regional politicians, clerics and
war profiteers.
Today social conditions in Iraq are appalling. Some 71% of people do
not get clean water, 70% say their sewerage system does not work. 47%
are short of electricity and 40% of southern Iraqis are unemployed.
Imperialism’s dilemma
Opposition against the war is growing in the US, in Britain and
around the world. Up to 500,000 people marched against the war in
Washington on 24 September.
This, in combination with reports from soldiers who increasingly
question the military occupation can trigger an upsurge of the anti-war
movement in the US. Leaked reports also talk about the low morale of the
British troops and the shortfall of meeting army recruitment targets.
Dissatisfaction with the situation and hatred towards the imperialist
occupation forces is mounting in Iraq. Without an exit strategy it is
estimated that troops will have to stay for another five to ten years.
Under siege and occupation and a possible slide towards the break-up
of the country, the future looks grim for the Iraqi working class and
the poor masses. Imperialism has nothing on offer for them and there
will be no peace and no security with the occupation in place. At the
same time, the present religious and local leaders and their
organisations will use the Iraqi people as a football in their power
struggle for influence over resources in the region.
Iraqi people need independent trade unions and political parties
which organise workers regardless of their ethnic and religious origin.
Multi-ethnic defence committees should be formed and elected to fight
the occupation. In order to bring about real change, the Iraqi working
class and poor masses need to break with capitalism and imperialism and
strive for a socialist Iraq as part of a voluntary federation of
socialist states of the Middle East.
Rising death toll
CONTRARY TO what the White House says, the death toll of Iraqi
civilians from ‘insurgent attacks’ is rising. A recent Pentagon report
to the US Congress says that 26,000 Iraqis have been killed or wounded
in these attacks, rising from 26 a day between January and March 2005 to
64 a day prior to the constitution referendum in October.
These statistics are lower than other estimates but they also exclude
people killed in air strikes in which the US forces do not distinguish
between insurgents and civilians.
A report carried in the independent medical journal, The Lancet, in
October 2004 suggested that 100,000 Iraqis had been killed since the
US-led occupation of the country began in March 2003.
Reconstruction billions lost through greed and corruption
CORPORATE GREED, corruption by contractors, bribery of local
officials and failed projects, have been the hallmarks of the
US-organised reconstruction of Iraq.
The latest report to Congress by the special inspector for Iraq
reconstruction reveals that much of the $30 billion fund for rebuilding
has gone down the drain, spent on security costs and on unfinished and
unplanned projects.
One example is the building of five electricity substations in
southern Iraq for $28.8 million, which are praised for their high
building standards. "Unfortunately," says the report, "the system for
distributing power from the completed substations was largely
non-existent."
- In March 2005 the Pentagon’s auditing agency found that Halliburton,
the Houston oil services giant formerly run by Vice-President Dick
Cheney, overcharged by more than $108 million on a contract. - A Halliburton subsidiary, Kellogg, Brown and Root, in one case
charged the Army more than $27 million dollars to transport $82,000
worth of fuel from Kuwait to Iraq. - A January 2005 report by special inspector Stuart Bowen found that
$8.8 billion dollars had been disbursed from Iraqi oil revenue by US
administrators to Iraqi ministries without proper accounting. - Last month, media news agency CNN reported that large-scale
corruption in Iraq’s ministries, particularly the defence ministry, "has
led to one of the biggest thefts in history with more than $1 billion
going missing," according to Iraq’s finance minister.
