Tony Saunois, Committee for a Workers’ International (CWI) secretary
In the tightest presidential election ever in Brazil, the far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro, was narrowly defeated by the veteran candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT), Luiz Inácio da Silva, popularly known as Lula. Lula scraped to victory, taking 50.9% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 49.1%. Lula won 59 million votes to Bolsonaro’s 57 million. Brazil is now a highly polarised and divided society. Despite Lula’s victory, the battle for Brazil is not over.
The defeat of Bolsonaro was celebrated by millions who feared a second term for the far-right reactionary populist. The narrowness of the result has shocked many given the catastrophic consequences of his government. A Covid-denier, he presided over 900,000 deaths during the pandemic. Millions have been driven into poverty and living standards have fallen. Vicious racism, homophobia and misogyny have been the hallmark of his regime, along with the destruction of vast swathes of the Amazon rainforest as he colluded with loggers and powerful landowners.
At the same time, his populism managed to win support among the large Brazilian middle class and sections of the urban poor, reflecting the fears of many, of violence and crime. This was combined with an appeal to reactionary sections of society, under the slogan of “family, patriotism and religion”, many of which have been drawn into the explosion of the evangelical churches which, according to some estimates, now embrace up to one third of the population.
Lula
Millions rallied to support Lula in order to eject Bolsonaro. However, many did so with a heavy scepticism because of the record of past PT governments. Lula was president for two terms, first elected in 2003. Under his presidency, he was able to introduce social reforms, which opened the universities to millions from the ‘favelas’, especially black youth who had previously been excluded.
An extensive social welfare programme, Bolsa Familia, provided financial aid to some of the poorest. When Lula left office after his second term, he enjoyed an 80% approval rating. These reforms were also accompanied by privatisations and attacks on the pension system, which led to a left-wing split from the PT and the formation of the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL). The reforms introduced were possible at that time because of a boom in commodity prices, and the explosion of exports to the then growing Chinese economy.
However, his appointed successor, Dilma Rousseff, also from the PT, who was elected in 2014, faced an entirely different economic and world situation, with a recession. Living standards fell and unemployment rose. At the same time, the PT was embroiled in an explosion of corruption scandals involving huge sums of money. An investigation into corruption, Lavo Jato, led by a right-wing judge implicated Lula who, for a period, was imprisoned for corruption. He was later released and cleared of all charges. However, the PT was riddled with corruption. The stench of corruption still remains, haunting the PT and other parties and politicians. This was exploited to the full by Bolsonaro and his supporters during the election campaign, despite their own corrupt practices.
The failure of the ‘left’ PT to break with capitalism when in government ultimately sowed the seeds allowing Bolsonaro to build a powerful right-wing reactionary bloc. They also exploited to the full the catastrophic situation in Venezuela, warning that under Lula, ‘socialism’ à la Venezuela would result. The failure to break with capitalism, combined with the US embargo and top-down bureaucratic, corrupt methods under Hugo Chavez, and more so under Nicolas Maduro, and the economic and social disaster which has followed, have given a weapon to the right wing throughout Latin America to attack the left and socialism.
At the same time, in Brazil the left split from the PT, PSOL, failed to build a mass alternative with a solid base among the working class and poor throughout the country. PSOL, in this election, wrongly failed to stand a candidate in the first round and has suffered splits.
Lula has made enormous efforts to prove himself to be a safe pair of hands for capitalism. He even formed a coalition with the right-wing Geraldo Alckmin, who stood against Lula in previous elections. But that is not what allowed him to win. Lula’s victory has arisen from the hatred of Bolsonaro by millions who wanted him out.
A majority of the main bourgeois interests in Brazil and internationally backed Lula against Bolsonaro. They never backed Bolsonaro when he stepped into the vacuum and won in 2018. At that stage, all of the traditional capitalist parties and the PT suffered a collapse in support and credibility.
In the run up to the election it seemed possible that Bolsonaro would attempt to do a Trump and refuse to accept the election result. He has had a strong base of support within the military, and had relaxed gun controls making it easier for his supporters to arm themselves. Had he mobilised his base and sections of the military, and attempted to cling to power through some form of attempted coup, it could have triggered a social explosion and armed conflict with elements of civil war.
It seems, at the time of writing, the military and other political leaders supporting him have pulled back from such actions for fear of the consequences which would flow from them. Such a step would be very dangerous for capitalism. Should Lula have come to power following such a conflict, the masses would have been radicalised and demanded the government go further, and take more radical measures that could encroach on the interests of capitalism.
This could change should sections of Bolsonaro’s base attempt to mobilise their forces to prevent Lula taking office in January 2023. The working class and left cannot rely on Bolsonaro not attempting to remain in power, nor on the political leaders of Lula’s pro-capitalist coalition. A mass mobilisation needs to be organised to take any measures necessary to prevent Bolsonaro or his supporters clinging onto power.
Although Lula won the presidential election, Bolsonaro’s supporters still control the most populated state in Brazil, São Paulo, where Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s former infrastructure minster, won the governor’s race. In congress, in the lower house, Bolsonaro’s right-wing block is the largest. Lula has a block of only about 25%!
The next Lula government will not enjoy the support of his first two terms as president. His coalition of the PT and right-wing capitalist parties is unwieldly, and splits are certain to open up. Moreover, Lula is not coming to power under the relatively favorable economic conditions as when he was first elected. Brazil faces its own recession, as well as a global one, inflationary crisis and higher interest rates. Lula, following his election victory, has declared that he will: “Govern for 215 million Brazilians. Not just those who voted for me. We are one people, one country, one great nation”. Yet Brazil is not one country. It is not one people! It is highly polarised both socially and politically.
He declared: “We no longer want to fight. We’re tired of seeing the other as the enemy”. This is not how the Bolsonaro right wing views the impeding struggles that will develop.
‘Safe pair of hands’
His attempts at reassuring capitalism that he is a safe pair of hands is not satisfying sections of the ruling class. As one banker very consciously put it just before the election: “We will get Lula elected in order to stop Bolsonaro. Then, on day one of his government, we go into opposition.”
Lula is likely to stop or reduce the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, which has been taking place unfettered under Bolsonaro. But his coalition government will not be stable and will go into crisis as divisions and splits open up. It will not have the prospect of implementing the scale of social welfare programmes that were introduced during his previous governments.
Following the election, a renewed battle for Brazil will open both with Bolsonaro’s reactionary forces and with the ruling class. The PT is now wedded to capitalism and riddled with corruption. The working class, and all those exploited by capitalism, need to prepare for the struggles that will rapidly unfold. A part of this struggle is to build a mass party of the working class, with a democratic socialist programme to break with landlordism and capitalism, offer a real way forward, and defeat Bolsonaro’s reactionary right-wing populism and the capitalist system from which it arose.
