Nazim and Berkay, Committee for a Workers’ International
On 31 March 2024, voters in Turkey punished Erdogan’s right-wing pro-capitalist Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been in power for more than two decades. Following its electoral victory in major cities in 2019, the self-claimed social democratic Kemalist Republican People’s Party (CHP) managed to retain control of the big cities.
In Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu from the CHP won the election with 51% of the vote against the AKP’s Murat Kurum with 40%. In the capital city Ankara, CHP candidate Mansur Yavas won with 60%, twice the votes of the AKP candidate. In both, the CHP significantly increased its vote share since 2019.
National stakes
Erdogan won the May 2023 presidential elections, albeit in a close race against the CHP candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. This was achieved despite the devastating earthquake of February 2023 – which tragically led to the death of over 50,000 people and caused colossal damage – and the intensifying economic crisis.
In the run-up to the 2024 local elections, Erdogan’s goal was to retake the country’s major cities: Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya and Adana.
More than anywhere else, the defeat in Istanbul was a heavy blow for the AKP because, in the words of Erdogan, “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey”. Istanbul is the flagship city where Erdogan began his political career as the mayor from 1994 to 1998. With an estimated population of over 16 million people, Istanbul accounts for more than 30% of Turkey’s economic output.
Opposition parties have won the elections under totally undemocratic conditions, with Erdogan desperately trying to take advantage of his strong grip over the Turkish state apparatus and the media.
But despite this, Erdogan suffered a crushing defeat across the country. For the first time in twenty years, his AKP failed to be the top party nationally. The CHP won 37.5% of the votes compared with 35.6% for the AKP. The AKP has lost more than 4.7 million votes nationwide and the CHP gained 3.3 million.
Economic crisis and Gaza
Although some claim that the CHP’s victory is due to the leadership change in November 2023, this is not true. Even though the CHP focused much more on welfare policies in this election, there was no genuine enthusiasm for the CHP. Voters punished Erdogan and the local AKP politicians by voting for the candidate who was most likely to beat them.
Turkey is in the grip of a major economic crisis, with inflation at 123% at the start of 2024. To curb inflation, Erdogan has abandoned his unorthodox economic policy that lower interest rates will reduce inflation. The central bank has now increased interest rates to 47% last month from 15% in June 2023. But inflation is still going up with a pending massive debt crisis on the horizon.
Prior to the 2023 presidential elections, Erdogan pumped an enormous amount of money into the economy which went into the pockets of poor people. For example, he increased the national minimum wage significantly and made gas free for all households for a month.
But, after the elections, under the leadership of the new finance minister Mehmet Simsek, the government has implemented austerity policies and raised interest rates significantly. Unemployment has begun to go up and is likely to rise sharply in the coming period. Austerity policies mean that the cost-of-of living crisis is becoming even more unbearable for the majority.
Voters wanted to punish Erdogan and there was a search for a left-wing alternative. The CHP has benefited from this anger, but it remains wedded to the capitalist system which is rigged against the poor. While pledging policies to alleviate poverty, it does not defend the interests of the working class and the poor. The CHP-led councils will face even more challenges in the coming period as the AKP rolls out more cuts to public services. It is likely to be forced to slash jobs and services.
And beyond the economic crisis, Israel’s war on Gaza was a factor in Erdogan’s defeat. While Erdogan publicly condemned the Israeli state brutality and even said Hamas is not a terrorist organisation to shore up his social base, the reality was different.
It has been revealed that not only do Turkish businesses continue trading with Israel, including arms sales, but state-owned businesses and AKP politicians have been directly or indirectly involved in trading with Israel. This exposure had an effect, in particular, amongst Islamic-conservative voters.
This was illustrated by the unexpected rise of the New Welfare Party (YRP), an Islamic party formed in 2018 which comes from the same political tradition as the AKP. It became the third-largest party with 6.2% and almost 3 million votes, nearly double what it won in last year’s parliamentary election. Alongside its stance on Gaza, its talk of ‘fair order’ was also appealing to the core base of the AKP.
Democratic attacks
The pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party, DEM Party (formerly the HDP), won 5.7% of the vote, or 2.6 million votes, compared with 1.9 million in 2019, despite systematic repression of its leaders, members and activists.
In fact, in several provinces, to prevent the DEM Party from winning, the Turkish state moved thousands of soldiers into these areas to cast their votes. However, the DEM Party scored very well in ten provinces, and held on to all its strongholds in the east and south-east. In the big cities such as Istanbul and Ankara, Kurdish people voted for the CHP to get rid of the hated AKP, even though the DEM Party fielded its own candidates in these cities.
In Van, the DEM Party’s candidate won the election with more than 55% of the votes but the Turkish election authority handed the victory to the AKP candidate, citing a previous conviction as the reason. After mass protests in Van, and with wider support across Turkey, the government was forced into a U-turn and handed the victory back to the DEM Party. This was an important victory highlighting the vulnerability of Erdogan’s regime in the face of mass protests.
It also shows that there could be mass struggles in the coming period for democratic and national rights. The left must be prepared to champion these rights and link it to the struggle for socialism.
The left
The Workers’ Party of Turkey (TIP), won two councils, including Samandag, a district in Hatay, a city that was severely affected by the earthquake. A Communist Party of Turkey (TKP) candidate came very close to winning in Defne, another district in Hatay. Moreover, the Left Party won two district councils. In Gebze, an industrial town near Istanbul with relatively strong trade union presence, the TIP general secretary did well, gaining 20% of the votes. It was significant that there was a left-wing challenge in an area where there is a very high concentration of industrial workers.
Compared to the 2023 parliamentary elections, the vote count for the TIP was significantly lower. It was squeezed by the lesser evilism mood, as people desperately wanted to punish Erdogan. The TIP chose not to field candidates in Kurdish strongholds in favour of the DEM Party, and in some areas they decided not to stand against the CHP.
But unfortunately the left was not organised. Rather than forming a united front with workers’ and socialist organisations, left-wing parties stood against each other in areas where the left could get decent results. In Defne, a socialist could have been elected if there was only one candidate from the left.
As the election results indicate, there is growing anger directed towards the AKP regime and a search for an alternative. The left could have built a united campaign to address the cost-of-living crisis and offer a socialist way out.
Erdogan has made it clear that austerity will continue. Despite raising interest rates, inflation is continuing to grow. These policies would have far-reaching consequences as more and more people plunge into deeper poverty.
It is urgent for the Kurdish and Turkish working class to fight together for a mass political voice that fights the cost-of-living crisis and defends the interests of the working class.
A united front of workers’ and socialist parties, on a socialist programme, is vital in this period. How this could develop is another question. But one thing that this election has shown is there is a search for a pro-working class alternative that addresses the cost-of-living crisis.
The left needs to raise clear class demands, such as the renationalisation of key utilities, an inflation-proof pay rise for all workers, cancellation of debt, and fully funded services, and link this to the need for the socialist transformation of society.
There will be many opportunities in the coming period with the potential for mass struggles to develop which would raise the need to break with capitalism. But the building of mass democratic organisations of the working-class will be vital in preparation for the gigantic battles that lie ahead.
