British perspectives 2022 (continued)
Whatever movements erupt in 2022 they will face a deeply divided weak Tory government. Back when Johnson won the 2019 election we predicted, against the prevailing mood, that he would prove to be weak. On 13 December 2019, the morning after the general election, we declared: “The seeming strength of Johnson’s government will be shattered by coming events. In 1987 Margaret Thatcher had a majority of 102. Within twelve months the campaign of mass non-payment against the poll tax, led by Militant, now the Socialist Party, had begun. It turned the Iron Lady into iron filings, forcing her resignation in 1990. Today the Tory Party is far weaker than it was then. It is bitterly divided, and Johnson has only been able to win by distancing himself from his own party, using populist rhetoric to falsely claim he is standing up for ‘the people’. This was a ‘snapshot’, a very ephemeral result with even Johnson having to acknowledge workers had only lent him their votes.”
Now Johnson’s authority is in tatters. That he became prime minister – elected as Tory leader in 2019 by just 92,153 Tory party members – is ultimately a reflection of the anger and alienation felt towards all governmental parties that act in the interests of the capitalist class. The posturing of Johnson, the ‘Poundland Trump’, rhetorically attacking his own party, was the only means by which the Tories could win a general election. The Johnson government is now fractured in multiple ways and is increasingly being punished at the ballot box for its cronyism, corruption and, above all, its failure to deliver any levelling-up for the working class.
The divisions in the Tory Party are numerous, and are far from only being between ‘leavers’ and ‘remainers’. In fact, many of the ‘libertarian right’ who made up an element of the Tory Brexiteers are increasingly in open opposition to Johnson. In the Covid situation the government, as we’ve explained, has had no choice but to rip up the policies of the previous neo-liberal era. The dream for Britain to become ‘Singapore-on-Thames’ is in pieces. As David Frost put it in his resignation speech, “the current direction of travel”, is the opposite to “a lightly regulated, low-tax, entrepreneurial economy, at the cutting edge of modern science and economic change” of which he dreamed. At the same time, ‘red wall’ Tory MPs tend to reflect the anger of their constituents at Tory austerity.
The policies of Johnson’s government do not point only in one direction, however, but are being buffeted by events. Increased state intervention in the economy is being combined with a continuation of privatisation of public services, in an attempt to find more profitable fields of investment for the capitalist class. Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s visit to the US featured negotiations with private healthcare companies about buying parts of the NHS. There is no doubt that the current acute crisis in the NHS plays a certain positive role for the Tory government, as part of a campaign to build support for private healthcare. The position of Starmer’s New Labour is no different, as shadow health minister Wes Streeting made crystal clear when he pledged that an incoming Labour government would repeat the policy of the Blair and Brown governments, and use private providers in the NHS. The 1997 New Labour government was elected pledging to end Thatcher’s NHS ‘internal market’, but within four years re-introduced and hugely accelerated it.
The Northern Ireland protocol is another illustration of the Tories’ problems. Throughout the whole process, for both the EU and the British government, the risk of escalating sectarian conflict has come second to defending their own narrow interests. However, the Johnson government is under massive pressure to avoid the damaging economic and political consequences of triggering Article 16, including from US President Biden. Therefore the search for a ‘compromise’ deal is on. Doing so remains, however, extremely difficult given the EU’s need to defend the single market, the objections of the vast majority of Northern Ireland’s Protestants to any border in the Irish Sea, and the threat Johnson faces from the right of his party if he is seen to make concessions to the EU – as was graphically demonstrated by Frost’s resignation. The question of a new Scottish independence referendum is not posed immediately, but will come to the fore again in the next period. The number of issues on which the capitalist class must be praying for a more competent representative than Johnson are legion and growing!
Johnson is such damaged goods now that the Tories are clearly considering moving to unseat him, possibly after poor results in the May local elections, if not before. While they may be able to unite around this, the question of who to replace him with is a different question, however. The majority of the capitalist class would prefer a more ‘traditional’ Tory, perhaps Jeremy Hunt or Rishi Sunak. However, the right-populist wing of the Tory Party has been dramatically strengthened under Johnson. It cannot be excluded that he would be replaced by someone more ‘Trumpian’ even than Johnson.
If this took place it would not follow that the new Tory leader would be able to re-win the electoral support Johnson got in 2019. While they could try to shore up their support by whipping up nationalism, encouraging the so-called ‘culture wars’ and so on, this would have a limited effect. On the contrary, against the background of huge cuts in living standards, and ‘levelling up’ adding up to nothing more than proposals for a few more mayors, hatred of the Tory government could rise exponentially.
