Berkay Kartav, London Socialist Party
In a highly tight presidential election on 14 May, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s right-wing populist leader, managed to secure the highest votes for himself and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Even though the AKP and the electoral alliance it leads now has a comfortable majority in the parliament, Erdogan did not manage to win more than 50% of the votes to secure a victory in the first round of the presidential elections.
While Erdogan received around 49.5% of the total votes, the candidate of the pro-capitalist Nation Alliance Kemal Kilicdaroglu just scraped 44% of the votes. Sinan Ogan, the far-right nationalist candidate, got around 5%. The results so far show that Turkey remains a highly polarised society.
This means the Turkish presidential elections will be going to a runoff on 28 May.
The presidential and parliamentary elections took place amid a historic cost-of-living crisis where inflation is predicted to be over 120%. The living standards of the working and middle classes have eroded significantly since the economic crisis of 2018, which the pandemic has intensified.
The crisis for Erdogan’s regime and Turkish capitalism was further deepened after two powerful earthquakes hit south-eastern Turkey in February this year, killing over 50,000 people. Not only was this rotten pro-capitalist government led by Erdogan responsible for the scale of this disaster, the lack of rescue teams and basic necessities such as tents and water added to the anger.
Given this situation, Erdogan fared better than expected and received around 49.5% of the total votes in the presidential elections. Even though this is a slight drop compared to the votes he received in 2018, Erdogan still got more votes than all other candidates.
Erdogan managed to do this by an incredible mobilisation of state resources. He was able to consolidate his base through a series of populist policies, including a significant pay rise for civil servants, early retirement for some workers, and free gas bills for every household for a month. Erdogan also whipped up Turkish nationalism through the announcement of the discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea. This was combined with homophobic and sexist rhetoric.
The national question was a key feature in the election campaign. Erdogan used ‘divide-and-rule tactics’ to whip up anti-Kurdish sentiments, especially targeting the pro-Kurdish HDP and its jailed ex-leader Selahattin Demirtas. This is despite the fact that Erdogan’s electoral alliance includes Hudapar, a Kurdish nationalist Islamic fundamentalist party that is closely affiliated to Kurdish Hezbollah.
The initial results could have a demoralising effect for a period, especially among young people who are fed up with Erdogan’s rule and who are desperate to see his back after the first round.
Their hopes were raised by the overly optimistic campaign by the Nation Alliance, led by the Kemalist Republican People’s Party (CHP), as they were predicting they would win in the first round.
The failure of this alliance to harness the anger in society is due to the fact that it offered nothing apart from saying it is ‘not Erdogan’. This is an unstable ‘united’ alliance that involves several right-wing parties, including the parties formed by the former finance minister, Ali Babacan, and the former prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who both served under the leadership of Erdogan, as well as another newly formed political party called the Good Party (IYIP) that split away from the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
Clearly, an election campaign almost solely based on ‘not being Erdogan’ was not enough to win votes from the disgruntled electorate that usually votes for Erdogan. This was also a failed strategy in 2014 and 2018 presidential elections. The right-wing candidate who stood against Erdogan and was endorsed by the CHP in the 2014 presidential elections, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, later become an Erdogan-supporter!
The popularity of the Nation Alliance amongst certain layers, including youth, was not due to any enthusiasm for the alliance but a desperation to get rid of Erdogan, given the economic crisis and attacks on democratic rights. Kilicdaroglu, who comes from an oppressed religious group called Alevism, has also got his highest votes in Kurdish cities, as he was backed by the pro-Kurdish left People’s Democratic Party (HDP).
Although it seems unlikely, it is still possible that Kilicdaroglu could make a comeback in the runoff elections. He leads a broad opposition against Erdogan and is backed by more far-sighted capitalists. The mouthpieces of capitalism such as the Economist magazine have openly endorsed the candidacy of Kilicdaroglu. But at the moment, Erdogan has the upper hand as he has a strong grip over the state bureaucracy and media.
Parliamentary elections
In the parliamentary elections, the People’s Alliance led by Erdogan – which is made up of several far-right parties – was able to gain the overall majority. While the AKP’s vote share has significantly decreased compared to previous elections, other right-wing parties in the coalition were able to increase their votes. This includes three seats for Hudapar.
Although the self-claimed ‘social democratic’ Kemalist CHP was able to increase the number of their MPs to 169, some of these seats will be allocated to the smaller right-wing parties in the Nation Alliance. This means the overall makeup of the new parliament will be predominantly right-wing and far-right parties.
However, it is positive that the left-wing Labour and Freedom Alliance, which is made out of the HDP and the newly formed Workers’ Party of Turkey (TIP), has now got 66 seats in parliament, with around 10% of the total vote. The TIP was able win a million votes in its first elections, it managed to keep its four seats in the parliament.
This small number of left-wing MPs in the parliament can act as a springboard for the workers’ movement if they use their positions effectively. But rather than putting forward left-populist policies, the TIP should raise a socialist programme by putting forward class demands.
Further steps should now be taken to strengthen and potentially extend this alliance to offer a socialist way out of this crisis. Discussions need to take place with other workers’ organisations to discuss the next steps in building an independent working-class movement with a socialist programme, not only to get rid of Erdogan but to take the power out of the hands of the super-rich and transform the living standards of the majority.
Building the forces of socialism
Whatever the result on 28 May, it is clear that the right had a breakthrough in the Turkish parliamentary elections. Objectively speaking, this is a defeat for the left.
The failure of the left to put forward a socialist alternative and build a strong base in working-class areas in these elections, including in the presidential elections, has allowed the far-right to make important gains.
However, even if Erdogan wins the runoff elections, the next five years will not be a stable period for him. The day after the elections the Turkish markets slumped and the Turkish currency, the lira, depreciated. Erdogan is seen as an unreliable representative of the capitalist class.
There is no prospect of economic recovery, at least in the short term. More vicious attacks on the working class, including democratic attacks, are on the way. There can be no faith in the pro-capitalist opposition parties to bring an end to Erdogan’s rule or what he represents.
It is crucial for the left to build an independent mass working-class movement, with a socialist programme, to be prepared for the fight to come. This would include raising democratic demands, in a transitional way, and defending the national and democratic rights of Kurdish people. Such a movement has the potential to enthuse the working-class, including those who are voting for Erdogan because they see no alternative.
We are approaching the tenth anniversary of the magnificent Gezi Park resistance at the end of this month, where millions of people were out on the streets against Erdogan’s authoritarian regime. Similar struggles, on a much bigger scale and with even broader aspirations, are on the agenda.
Learning from the past defeats will be vital in this period. A serious discussion needs to take place within the workers’ movement to politically arm the working class and prepare the forces of socialism for what is going to be an unstable period, with many opportunities for Marxist forces to grow.
