The more things change, the more they stay the same
Dave Reid, Socialist Party Wales
Eluned Morgan has taken over as leader of Welsh Labour and will be the third First Minister of Wales in five months. She was nominated unopposed and will be ‘crowned’ first minister on 6 August.
But the more the personnel at the top of Welsh government changes, the more things stay the same. Under Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething, Welsh Labour has presided over a steady decline in public services, even steeper than in Tory England. NHS waiting lists have grown, teachers in schools are under greater pressure than ever and council services are a shadow of what they were when Labour first took over the Welsh government when it was created in 1999.
NHS waiting list
Under Morgan as health minister, the decline in NHS services accelerated. The week before she became Welsh Labour leader it was announced that in a population of just over three million over 600,000 people languish on NHS waiting lists – over one fifth of the population – and 155,000 are waiting longer than a year.
Morgan will attempt to calm the turmoil in Welsh Labour. The coup against Gething, following his dismissal of Hannah Blythyn as a minister, created different factions of the 30 Labour members of the Senedd (MS). These are largely personal factions, there is no discernible political difference between the warring groups, but they reflect the tension at the blind alley the Welsh government has found itself in.
Labour wields Tory axe
Labour in Wales has wielded the Tory axe to public spending. The Welsh government’s funding is mainly determined by the UK government, which under the Tories has been cut in real terms for the last 14 years. In terms of the social needs of Wales, the government is underfunded even relative to England. Rather than fighting, the Welsh government has tailored its budget to the Tories’ cuts. Earlier reforms carried out under previous Labour governments in Wales have been undermined.
Now Welsh Labour has nowhere to go, unable to carry out any significant reforms to differentiate itself from the UK government without a fight. The decision to create 36 extra MSs in the next parliament at the same time that the NHS cannot recruit enough doctors and nurses has only deepened its unpopularity.
Rock solid no more
Labour’s vote share dropped in Wales in the general election, in what used to be a rock-solid bastion. Turnout was low, especially in the most working-class constituencies.
Morgan will hope to salvage something from the wreckage of the past few months, but most workers in Wales would be wide open to the prospect of change. The vote for Reform (17%) in the general election is a warning to the trade union movement – we need a new party of the working class, to give a positive alternative to the failed strategy of Welsh Labour.
Socialist Party Wales will be working with trade unionists to propose workers’ lists for the Senedd elections in 2026.
