TU Senan, Committee for a Workers’ International, International Secretariat
The presidential election in Sri Lanka on 21 September is the first significant election since the ‘Aragalaya’ – the mass movement that ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Since then, the presidency has been held by Ranil Wickremesinghe, a veteran capitalist politician who has been prime minister on several occasions. He has delayed calling this election for as long as possible to give time to rebuild the reputation and support of the entire capitalist establishment, which was shattered by the movement.
The restructuring of debt and further borrowing from the IMF and various countries (China, the United States, and India) have temporarily helped avert the looming economic catastrophe. However, none of the factors that led to the country’s bankruptcy have been adequately addressed or resolved.
Following the default on repayments in May 2022, domestic debt has continued to rise. There is no real solution in sight. The ‘restructuring’ talks effectively amount to implementing further austerity. Deprivation is on the rise, with over 30% of the population – more than 7 million people – now plunged into dire poverty.
Nearly half the population has reduced what they eat to provide for their children and save money for energy needs. More than half of the population have no savings due to the soaring cost of living, and 6% of households have ceased sending their children to school. This is particularly alarming in a country where children’s education used to be highly valued and considered a priority.
Even welfare programmes intended to support the poorest have failed to reach those in need. While vast sections of the population plunge further into desperate conditions, lenders continue their collaboration with the capitalists, prioritising the protection of their investments and profits over the wellbeing of the majority.
Fearing a potential resurgence of mass movements, the government has intensified its repression against protests and strikes, which persist across the country. Most demonstrations led by students or activists are met with police hostility and, at times, violent dispersal.
Political fragmentation
The discredited mainstream parties have lost significant support, and their weakness has led to a record 39 presidential candidates!
Sajith Premadasa, the candidate from the main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB – ‘United People’s Power’), positions himself as a reliable representative of the capitalist class, while also claiming to support the Aragalaya movement. The once-governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) finds itself torn between supporting Premadasa, Namal Rajapaksa (son of former president Mahinda), or Ranil. Amid these divisions, Premadasa is also negotiating with Tamil parties to secure their support. Given the considerable unpopularity of both Ranil and the Rajapaksa family, the SJB candidate is seen as a likely contender for victory.
The Tamil vote could significantly influence the election outcome this time. [Tamils are an oppressed nationality in Sri Lanka and a brutal 25-year-long civil war took place along national lines, ending in 2009 with mass reprisals and persecution of Tamils.] Through the election campaign, right-wing Tamil political representatives have fragmented, with sentiments for boycotting the election or fielding a Tamil candidate have developed. Some factions have come together for the first time to put forward a common Tamil candidate. An unspoken battle for Tamil votes is now unfolding in the south, yet none of the right-wing parties have stepped forward to address key demands of the Tamil community, let alone offer a viable solution to the national question.
NPP faux-‘Marxists’
The National Peoples’ Power (NPP), a coalition led by the JVP (People’s Liberation Front), has emerged as an alternative, despite not playing a leading role in the mass struggle. Its candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, was ahead in opinion polls prior to June.
However, a shift away from the NPP began as the SJB intensified its campaign as a “reliable force”, committed to continuing capitalist policies while also announcing populist measures in its manifesto. This includes acceptance of the longstanding 1,000 Sri Lanka Rupees wage demand of hill country workers, fully implementing the 13th amendment to the constitution to appeal to Tamils, and restricting the executive powers of the president.
Although the NPP brands itself as ‘Marxist’, its policies hardly differ in substance and effect from those of the right-wing SJB. The NPP has capitalised on past struggles and anger. The anti-corruption sentiment, in particular, has increased its support, as it presents itself as ‘clean’. However, its programme offers little beyond ‘clean capitalism’, lacking concrete solutions for improving the economy. It is now prepared to protect the interests of Indian billionaires and the IMF in Sri Lanka.
The NPP fails to address nationalisation or the protection of nationalised health and education. There is no mention of reversing recent legislation that undermines workers’ and democratic rights. The NPP is woolly on the national question.
A victory for its candidate might even further erode democratic rights. The NPP attracts the Sinhala nationalist base of the Rajapaksa family due to discontent with corruption and economic conditions. Distrust in capitalist institutions and politicians is widespread, and there is suspicion towards the lenders. Some youth and militant workers are drawn to socialist alternatives, which are not unpopular. A victory for the NPP would be unlikely to bolster socialist consciousness, as capitalists will probably exploit its shortcomings to propagate anti-left sentiment.
Marxists must concentrate on rejecting all alternatives protecting capitalism and focus on strengthening the independent power of the working class, through a socialist programme. The working class taking a leading role in struggles could transform the current situation.
The Frontline Socialist Party (FSP), formed by a split from the JVP, has created a small coalition called the People’s Struggle Alliance which is standing in the elections. Its critique of the JVP as a Sinhala nationalist force and its efforts to advocate for socialist ideas are positive developments. Although its manifesto includes details of what it envisions as socialist policies, such as establishing a constituent assembly, enacting the right to recall representatives, and reversing draconian laws, it falls short on two major issues: economic policy and the national question.
Don’t pay the debt
While it agrees that IMF-led policies should be resisted, the manifesto stops short of advocating for the complete non-payment or abolition of all debts. Instead, it proposes negotiating with lenders and delaying debt repayment until the economy improves, with part of the income eventually allocated to debt repayment, which is similar to that of other capitalists and the NPP, differing only slightly in nuance and intention.
Marxists understand that radical policies advancing workers’ interests will face resistance from international capitalism and its local allies. Therefore, a clear strategy on implementing these policies is crucial. Marxists advocate an alternative strategy, including debt non-payment or full cancellation, capital controls to prevent capital outflow, worker-controlled mechanisms for price control and essential goods distribution, and the nationalisation of key economic sectors. Education, health, energy, transport, and other sectors should be managed by worker-controlled bodies, with increased subsidies for industry and agriculture development. This vision can only be realised by a workers’ government and through solidarity among international working-class movements.
Tamil self-determination
The People’s Struggle Alliance also presents a muddled position on the national question. Since the FSP split from the JVP, it has not clearly articulated its stance on this issue. It equates Tamil and Sinhala nationalism as mirror images, without acknowledging the specific context of Tamil demands in relation to state repression.
National aspirations span all classes due to shared repression. Even if pro-capitalist or petty bourgeois sections lead the movement, Marxists must understand its roots and promote workers’ unity against all forms of oppression, including national oppression. Recognising demands such as Tamils’ right to self-determination is crucial. Marxists should support building an independent working-class movement among oppressed nationalities and unite to dismantle oppressive capitalist systems. Supporting the demands of oppressed nations to self-determination will both weaken the capitalists they are fighting against and bring the working and poor masses of all nationalities closer together. Instead, the People Struggle Alliance proposes a vague ‘autonomy’ (wrongly read as self-government in Tamil) which fails to adequately address national oppression.
United Socialist Party
The United Socialist Party (USP), affiliated to the Committee for a Workers’ International (CWI), takes a class-based position to the problems facing working people of all nationalities. This may explain why the People’s Struggle Alliance has not invited the USP to join its coalition. The USP maintains a friendly relationship with the FSP, collaborating in various struggles and forums against ongoing repression. The USP has consistently advocated greater collaboration among leftist groups and the establishment of a principled alliance based on a Marxist programme and strategy. The USP has put forward the slogan of debt non-payment from the outset and continues to campaign for it. It has fought for the establishment of workplace and nationwide committees to harness the momentum of the 2022 movement and sustain resistance efforts. USP members have actively participated in this work, encouraging involvement with the People’s Struggle Alliance and other left groups.
Given the severe economic crisis and heightened national tensions, Marxists should not compromise on articulating our programme. The USP has consistently defended the rights of workers, farmers, the poor, and Tamils. When the JVP and much of the left supported the Rajapaksa regime during the Tamil massacres, USP members stood against the slaughter and war.
USP general secretary Siritunga (Siri) Jayasuriya is standing again for president. Despite limited resources, he will put forward a Marxist programme, not solely to gain votes but to build an independent working-class organisation prepared to resist a post-election offensive against the working class. The USP encourages everyone to vote for Siri and, more importantly, to participate in building a revolutionary Marxist party and a mass party of the workers.
