Perspectives for economic, social and political developments in Britain cannot be separated from events worldwide.
The globe is increasingly unstable and conflict-ridden, with wars and environmental catastrophes on the rise.
Three decades ago, for a short period after the implosion of the Stalinist regimes in Russia and Eastern Europe, US imperialism really was the sole ‘unipolar’ superpower, able to ‘call the shots’ and mediate between the interests of smaller powers, looking after its own interests in the process, of course.
Today US imperialism remains the most powerful country, but it is in decline and is increasingly unable to shape events in its interests or to act as the ‘world’s policeman’.
Instead we are in multipolar world of growing global tensions, where different national capitalist classes are more and more compelled to defend their own increasingly conflicting interests.
This document has been drafted as the horrific onslaught on Gaza by the Israeli state continues.
It is not possible here to elaborate perspectives for the war and its global ramifications, but it is clear that – despite the desperation to contain the conflict of the major world powers and the Arab regimes – there is nonetheless a possibility of it escalating into a regional war that would have major international consequences.
Even now the conflict has had global repercussions.
It has undermined the authority of US imperialism, already in tatters after Biden’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The start of the Ukraine war, when the US brought other Western powers behind it, superficially appeared to strengthen the US’s prestige, but that has reached its limits, with increasing friction within the US and between the Western powers on how long to continue arming Ukraine.
Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, backed by US imperialism but clearly not under its control, has further undermined it.
A significant anti-war movement has erupted worldwide, including the biggest pro-Palestinian demonstrations ever to take place in Britain.
All those capitalist politicians backing Israel’s onslaught have been damaged, not least Biden in the US.
The Arab rulers are terrified that the mass rage against Israel and the oppression of the Palestinians could fuse with the huge anger at poverty and repression at home, creating the basis for a new ‘Arab Spring’.
Here the demonstrations have led to the sacking of ultraright-wing home secretary, Suella Braverman, which has further opened the deep schisms in the Tory Party.
Keir Starmer remains on course to become the next prime minister, but his stance on Gaza, refusing even to call for a ceasefire, has deepened his unpopularity and opened new splits within Labour.
However, the parliamentary rebellion over the SNP vote on a ceasefire also demonstrated how marginalised the Labour left now is under Starmer’s iron grip.
Only just over a quarter of the Parliamentary Labour Party rebelled even on this issue and, of those, only 23 were Labour members of the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs, the rest voting primarily to try and shore up their vote given the character of their constituencies.
Nonetheless, this, and the resignations of Labour councillors, give a glimpse of the divisions that can develop in government – even within capitalist New Labour – under the impact of events.
