This short British Perspectives document aims to outline the main features of the situation our party will be facing in the run-up to and, more particularly, after the next general election. It is for discussion and agreement at our 2024 National Congress due to take place on 2-4 March 2024. It should be read in addition to the articles published in our paper and magazine on the many stormy current developments...

Perspectives for economic, social and political developments in Britain cannot be separated from events worldwide. The globe is increasingly unstable and conflict-ridden, with wars and environmental catastrophes on the rise. Three decades ago, for a short period after the implosion of the Stalinist regimes in Russia and Eastern Europe, US imperialism really was the sole ‘unipolar’ superpower, able to ‘call the shots’ and mediate between the interests of smaller powers, looking after its own interests in the process, of course...

Central to the problems that will face Labour in office will be the weakness of British capitalism, against a background of a crisis-ridden global system. Ultimately, this is what lies at the root of the Tories multiple crises, and Labour will face a worse situation. The world economy has suffered a series of shocks: the pandemic, the Ukraine war and now the Israel/Gaza war...

While blocking the rise of China is actually the main driving force behind Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act, the ‘cover story’ is encouraging investment in green technology as part of the green transition. What a condemnation that modern capitalism’s response to climate change – which clearly can only be combated on a global basis – is being used to justify increased protectionism! The US has led the way, but every major power is being forced to respond by steps in the same protectionist direction...

It isn’t possible to predict now whether Britain, or the world, will already be in recession at the time of Starmer becoming prime minister, or whether that will lie ahead. We can predict, however, that he will become prime minister. The Tories got 26% of the vote in the 2023 local elections and opinion polls since have consistently put them at that level or even lower...

The economic backdrop is central to why there is no prospect of a Starmer-led government achieving the relative stability of New Labour’s early years under Blair. In 1997 the economy grew by 4.9%, the fifth successive year of relatively strong growth. The national debt was 40% of GDP...

Nonetheless, we have to be prepared for the capacity of the working class to ‘hope against hope’. While millions will vote for Labour simply because it is the only available weapon to defeat the Tories, others will cling to the illusion that Starmer is pretending to be more right-wing than he really is in order to win the election...

Drawing a balance sheet of the strikes is an important part of the preparation for developments in the next period. We agreed with Mick Lynch, RMT general secretary, declaring that ‘the working class is back’ at the start of the strike wave. Maybe now the level of strikes has subsided, some may think that we were wrong to do so, but in our view, we were correct to say that the working class has re-entered the scene of history...

We also have a vital role to play in the workers’ movement on the issue of working-class political representation. We have been raising the demand for a new mass workers’ party for more than a quarter of a century. Inevitably this can raise questions in comrades' minds about whether it remains relevant...

This will develop regardless of us. It was the case even under New Labour Mark One. After the 2002 national FBU strike, the union’s conference overwhelmingly voted to disaffiliate from Labour in 2004...

As has already been referred to, arguments to support Labour as the ‘lesser evil’ will not cease after the general election. ‘Left’ apologists for Starmer will also point to the danger of Suella Braverman, or someone like her, becoming prime minister if the trade unions don’t continue to back Labour...

We have to be ready for anger at the existing order to erupt in many other forms. Where the workers’ movement does not step into the vacuum and give a clear lead it will not prevent struggle but tend to make it more inchoate and complicated...

In the difficult period after the collapse of Stalinism, when socialist ideas were extremely marginalised, we had to fight tenaciously to maintain our organisation. We were able to do so because of our Marxist programme and approach...