Ireland is heading to the polls in a snap general election scheduled for 29 November. The governing Fine Gael and Fianna Fail coalition leaders are looking to capitalise on opposition party Sinn Féin plummeting in opinion polls. Ciarán McKenna, Militant Left (CWI Ireland), looks at the crisis in Sinn Féin, and what that means for the upcoming general election.
After years of riding high in the polls, Sinn Féin [‘Ourselves Alone’ – a republican party historically linked to the Provisional Irish Republican Army] is mired in a deep crisis. Just a few weeks from a general election, Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald is subject to intense media scrutiny over the internal regime within the party.
Two TDs [Teachta Dála, members of the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (Irish Parliament)] have resigned in the past number of weeks. Kildare South TD Patricia Ryan resigned after objecting to the way in which the party controlled what she said in public. More damaging is the resignation of Laois TD Brian Stanley, who was Chair of the influential Public Accounts Committee. His resignation seems clouded in innuendo, with further developments expected.
In the North, there have been deeply damaging revelations about senior members of the party, including a former Sinn Féin leader in the Seanad and a former press officer. All of this comes on the back of declining poll numbers in the South. While Sinn Féin’s local and European election performance was respectable, it fell short of expectations of a breakthrough. Under present circumstances, the long-anticipated Dáil election breakthrough for Sinn Féin looks increasingly doubtful.
In a capitalist democracy it is assumed by the establishment that political parties aspiring to govern must be vetted and approved by the capitalist class. This is the precondition for them being permitted to govern. Where a political organisation with mass support puts forward a programme that conflicts with the interests of the capitalist class, from key economic to constitutional issues, that party is generally destroyed or severely damaged and hampered.
The ruling capitalist class is adept at exploiting the political weaknesses, mistakes and scandals of parties or figures. Some recent examples of this are Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the British Labour Party between 2015-2019; the Scottish National Party; and Bernie Sanders’s US presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020.
Courting capitalism
Sinn Féin, however, had been meticulous in its preparations to govern. It had made a point of developing close relations with influential sectors of the capitalist class. In April, it held an investor meeting facilitated by arch-capitalist Davy Stockbrokers. Its record of support for austerity in the Stormont Assembly has established its credentials as a ‘serious party of government.’ That is, one that will not make any fundamental economic or political changes to benefit the working class. In terms of economic policy, Sinn Féin’s programme presents few difficulties for the capitalist class.
But in the South there is a very significant added complication. As an organisation rooted in armed republicanism, Sinn Féin is hated by key pillars of the Southern state and establishment, who will clearly never regard it as a legitimate political party, no matter how many votes it gets. Influential elements within the civil service, the Gardaí [police], the officer class of the defence forces, the print and broadcast media, all remain deeply hostile to any idea of a Sinn Féin-led government.
Border poll instability
Perhaps more importantly still, the ruling elite fears that a Sinn Féin government would push strongly for a border poll, thereby destabilising governing structures, north and south, and exacerbating sectarian tensions. This in turn risks undermining the security of US multinational capitalism, which holds huge investments in – and exercises strong political influence over – the state. Indeed, the wider economy has, since the 1960s, been built around, and remains substantially dependent on, continuing US inward investment.
What does all this mean for the working-class majority in the South? Since the 2016 election, Sinn Féin has been the vehicle for hopes that the century-long domination by the corrupt capitalist parties (with their roots in the 1920s civil war) could be decisively broken. The housing crisis and the effective ending of home ownership for ordinary working people are just the latest examples of how the two civil war parties continue to shape society in ways that compromise the lives of millions of ordinary people.
A decade of extremely uneven post-austerity ‘recovery’ has radically worsened social and economic inequality. While the number of millionaires in the South grows every year, 400,000 workers remain permanently mired on poverty pay. Layers of society are condemned to lives of deprivation despite the colossal wealth made every year. The brutality of the hybrid public-private healthcare system, which the treatment of children with scoliosis, for example, exposes, never seems to end and is the enduring example of stark social inequality.
Sinn Féin’s growing crisis also calls into question the idea of a Sinn Féin-led ‘left’ or ‘progressive’ government. This, in any case, was always unlikely. Not least because it has been clear, to those looking closely enough over the past ten years, that Sinn Féin itself was extraordinarily lukewarm about this idea, while being nonetheless prepared to politely indulge the delusions of those on the socialist left who regarded it as a serious proposition.
More tellingly, the party has repeatedly demonstrated that it not only has no orientation to building working-class struggle, but that it views powerful social movements with distrust and concern.
Sinn Féin prospects
On current polling, and with an escalating crisis that will dominate media coverage of Sinn Féin for weeks, Sinn Féin will not be in a position to lead the next government in the South. Mary Lou McDonald will not be Taoiseach. The Irish political establishment have found a formula that they believe can prevent a Sinn Féin government; and they are likely to stick with it.
So, the next government will probably be a continuation of the current coalition based on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The Green Party will repeat the pattern of losing most, or all, of its Dáil seats after a stint in government, and the Social Democrats, Labour and assorted Independents will replace them to make up the numbers. There will be no significant change in the Dáil.
What then? Militant Left has always called out many of the grand claims made by and for Sinn Féin. But we have also always recognised that, for hundreds of thousands of working-class people, this party was seen as the force that had the potential to decisively change things for the better. That it would right many of the fundamental wrongs that afflict the working class in the South. That it would break apart the political cartel who have for over a century enriched themselves and their buddies, regardless of the consequences for the majority. That prospect is receding.
Far-right threat
A potentially dangerous political vacuum might open up for many in the working class, particularly those most oppressed by Irish capitalism. The prospect of the far right, including its fascist elements, filling that vacuum must be openly reckoned with. The establishment thinks it can contend with, and at times utilise, a rampaging and violent far right, so long as there is no repeat of events like last November’s riots in Dublin. If a radical spike in racism, anti-LGBTQ activism and anti-asylum seeker violence is the price to be paid to stop a Sinn Féin government, then many in the Irish political establishment would regard that as a bargain.
The socialist left must soberly assess matters. The case for a mass party of the working class, based on an unapologetic socialist programme, is now incontestable. While still comparatively small, socialist forces have a basis to build such a party to challenge not only the mainstream right-wing parties and the far right, but also Sinn Féin itself.
Working-class representation
Such a party cannot just be an electoral vehicle, it must be a campaigning and organising force that puts a socialist programme front and centre of all its demands. These demands include ending the housing crisis with a mass public housing programme, at genuinely affordable rents; free healthcare; cheap public transport; a living wage for all and decent workplace conditions – all tied to the need for the fundamental socialist transformation of society.
Sinn Féin’s many political contradictions are the root cause of its present difficulties. A party of austerity in the North presenting itself as a party of economic and social justice in the South. A party always eager to hobnob with US presidents while proclaiming solidarity with the Palestinians and other oppressed groups. Its present crisis may abate in time but right now it will without a doubt severely cut across Sinn Féin’s ambitions in the imminent general election campaign.
