The Left: ray of hope against cuts and racism
Sascha Stanicic, federal spokesperson, Sol – Sozialistische Organisation Solidarität (CWI Germany)
The result of the federal election is a slap in the face of the established, pro-capitalist parties. The only parties that won were those that many do not consider to be part of this establishment. Polarisation and instability are reflected in the election result and are simultaneously reinforced by it. Above all, however, a Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) led government, headed by CDU leader Friedrich Merz, will try to meet the capitalists’ demands for improvements in their profit margins, something that means attacks on the working class. Trade unions and the resurgent Die Linke (The Left) must prepare to fight against this.
The most important thing about this election, despite the doubling of the far-right Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) share of the vote, is the strong result of Die Linke, which successfully resisted the threat of parliamentary collapse and used its existential crisis as an opportunity for revival. Not only gaining more than two million more votes compared to the last federal election in 2021, but, above all, many thousands of new members gives hope in view of the doubling of the AfD’s percentage result, and are an opportunity to spark resistance and movement from the left.
Whoever governs, loses
Last year, governing parties were punished in almost all elections internationally. This reflects the fact that in today’s era of multiple crises of capitalism, pro-capitalist governments – whether social democratic, liberal, conservative or right-wing populist – are not pursuing policies that improve the living conditions of the masses.
The reason? All of these forces are committed to capitalism and pursue policies in the interests of the capitalist class. This also applied to the outgoing German ‘traffic light’, or Ampel, coalition government – named after the colours of its constituent parties the Green Party (green), Free Democratic Party (orange) and Social-Democratic Party (red) – even though it fell apart over the question of how the interests of capitalism can best be represented.
The disaster is particularly great for the Social Democrats, as they achieved their worst result in history, losing 3.7 million second votes. The Greens lost a good million votes and have fallen very low compared to their interim high in the opinion polls. And the FDP, the small party of big capital, did not make it back into the Bundestag (parliament), to the delight of all wage earners, losing 3.1 million votes. The former governing parties received almost eight million fewer votes than in 2021! The CDU-CSU was only able to gain just under 2.5 million of these but also achieved the second worst result in its history. For the pro-capitalist establishment, this federal election is a huge disaster!
Polarisation
Above all, the election shows the increasing polarisation and instability in society. Party loyalty is decreasing more and more. While the Greens and FDP had top ratings among young voters in the 2021 federal election, and this was the case with the AfD in the various elections last year, Die Linke is now ahead among young people, and especially young women. This process of fragmentation will continue and make it more difficult for the ruling class to find stable government constellations.
Everything points to the formation of a government that used to be called a ‘grand coalition’, consisting of the CDU-CSU and SPD, but which for the first time has less than fifty percent of the vote. They only have a parliamentary majority because a good seven million voters who voted for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), FDP and smaller parties will not be represented in parliament. Even if we are not bothered by the failure of the FDP and BSW, this is an expression of the undemocratic nature of the five percent hurdle to getting into the parliament.
This government, led by the former Black Rock manager and millionaire Merz, will have neither a comfortable majority in the Bundestag nor a strong social base. In its first phase, it may give the impression of greater stability than the permanently quarrelling Ampel coalition, but Merz, who has had very low approval ratings for years and can only rely on a majority of twelve MPs in parliament, will not be a strong chancellor. And even if the SPD is prepared to do almost anything to keep German capitalism going, it will have to look over its shoulder at its dwindling base among wage earners and trade unionists if Merz demands that they agree to his Agenda 2030 plans.
A look at Austria, however, shows that there can be compromises between conservatives and social democrats if they are forced to do so. Merz can ‘buy’ approval for corporate tax cuts, attacks on citizens’ income or more flexible working time regulations, for example, by agreeing to a reform of the ‘debt brake’, which he probably wants anyway, because it is clear that significant sections of the capitalist class (and also the CDU-CSU) are in favour of it in order to have more scope for investments in armaments and infrastructure, which are necessary from the capitalists’ point of view.
The capitalist class has been calling for an ‘economic turnaround’ or Agenda 2030 for months, and a Chancellor Merz will certainly try to implement it. How far he can go and at what speed remains to be seen, and it is possible that major attacks on the social security systems and the rights of wage earners and unions will be postponed for a while. Nevertheless, unions and the left must prepare to resist this ‘small grand coalition’. The fact that the SPD will most likely be back in government will mean that the union leadership will back the government. That is why pressure from the grassroots is needed to push through union mobilisations and struggles – also to push through an end to the acceptance of mass job cuts, as practiced by the IG Metall leadership at Volkswagen.
At the same time, this situation also offers a great opportunity for Die Linke, which will now be the only left-wing, social and anti-militarist opposition in the Bundestag. This is true even though the Greens will certainly try to present themselves as an opposition and will emphasise their ecological and social side more.
AfD
The AfD was able to almost double its percentage result and is the strongest force in East Germany, where it won almost all direct, constituency, mandates. It is profiting from the dissatisfaction and alienation of large sections of the population with the establishment and from the so-called migration debate, which was massively promoted by Merz, Sahra Wagenknecht, other capitalist politicians and the media, and which means wind in the sails of the right-wing populists. The idea of stealing votes from the AfD by using the harshest possible rhetoric against migrants and migration has not worked for either the CDU-CSU or the BSW. As we have always said, people are more likely to vote for the original than the copy.
The rise of the right-wing populists obscures the conflicts that exist within the AfD. After the election, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, emphasized that she was extending a hand to the CDU-CSU for participation in the government, while Björn Höcke, AfD chairperson in Thuringia, and on the extreme right of the party, spoke out against becoming the junior partner of the CDU-CSU, and other party representatives emphasised that one does not have to join a government to vote on laws. How long this will remain so is an open question.
What is clear, however, is that the AfD can expand its social roots and is becoming an ever greater danger. The number of protest voters among those who vote for the AfD is decreasing. It is also clear that the so-called ‘firewall’ has developed significant cracks as a result of Merz’s actions in connection with the Bundestag votes on the so-called ‘Immigration Restriction Act’, where he relied on AfD votes. These have not been repaired by all of Merz’s assurances that he does not want to cooperate with the AfD.
The process of cooperation with the AfD is already in full swing at the local level. The increasingly unstable state governments in eastern Germany will sooner or later lead to AfD participation in government or even minority governments there. There is a great danger that the AfD will be the main beneficiary of the expected crisis and government policy in the next legislative period. In order to prevent this and to weaken the right-wing populists again, major class struggles and the creation of a convincing left-wing alternative are necessary.
BSW
The fact that the BSW narrowly missed the five percent threshold is certainly due, on the one hand, to the fact that a layer of left-leaning BSW voters could no longer follow the party due to Sahra Wagenknecht’s anti-migrant rhetoric, which was also reflected in a few prominent party resignations. On the other hand, this new party has robbed itself of its anti-establishment status by joining the state governments of Brandenburg and Thuringia.
This certainly contributed to the fact that the high-flying party came to an abrupt end and Wagenknecht and Co. have now been thrown out of the Bundestag. The BSW has no strong social roots – neither in society nor in a large membership. This will now come back to haunt it. Whether the party will continue to play a role or disappear into insignificance is an open question and will certainly also depend on whether Wagenknecht herself withdraws or not. But it cannot be ruled out that the party can still sue its way into the Bundestag. And given the great instability, there is still potential for votes for the party and it would be premature to write it off now.
Die Linke
The success of Die Linke confirms the thesis we support that we are in a situation of social polarisation and not a simple shift to the right. This polarisation finally found political expression on the left in the election.
This is only partly due to what the leadership of Die Linke has done differently in recent months than before, and above all to the rise of the AfD, Friedrich Merz’s approach to the joint vote with the AfD in the Bundestag, and the fact that Die Linke was on the verge of parliamentary extinction.
New members, the door-to-door campaign, the party’s new offers of help, the good performance of the top candidates and the consistent emphasis on social and distribution issues, and the cooperation of the CDU-CSU with the AfD in the Bundestag, have now triggered a dynamic that no one had expected. The amount of hope and enthusiasm that Die Linke’s comeback can trigger among a section of young people, migrants and wage earners should not be underestimated. This is probably especially true in Berlin-Neukölln, where the campaign around Ferat Koçak not only managed to win Die Linke’s first direct mandate in a western constituency (with 30%), but also to win hundreds of members for the party.
For the first time in a long time, it is proof that there can also be positive developments ‘in politics’. It is good that the party leadership is emphasising that the protest must be taken to the streets, and it is to be hoped that the new members of the Bundestag who come from union struggles – such as the automobile worker Cem Ince (Volkswagen Salzgitter) or the nurse Stelle Merendino from Berlin-Mitte – will contribute to ensuring that the party and the Bundestag faction focus on supporting union struggles against job cuts, hospital closures and for better working conditions.
All of this now means a great opportunity to develop a political force from the millions of votes, the 64 Bundestag seats and thousands of new members. We have drawn up proposals and pointed out that a political change of course is necessary compared to the direction of the last few years. Because, bottom line, it was the adaptation to the SPD and the Greens, the perception of being part of the political establishment, that led Die Linke into crisis (after it had already achieved an election result of 11.9% in the 2009 Bundestag election).
If cuts and arms deliveries to Ukraine are supported in Bremen and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with the participation of Die Linke in the state governments, CDU state premiers are brought into office in Saxony and Thuringia and the only reason why Die Linke does not govern with pro-capitalist parties is because they do not want to or because there is no financial possibility, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy that the party will not emerge from its crisis in the long term. This must be prevented.
This requires broad debates, the involvement of members, and a focus on campaigns and class struggle. In these debates, Sol members will advocate for a clear socialist programme – for Die Linke to clearly formulate a systemic alternative to capitalism, to openly address the question of ownership (i.e. to demand the transfer of banks and corporations into democratic public ownership), to speak out against participation in government with pro-capitalist parties, and to focus on supporting class struggles and social protest movements.
