Peluola Adewale, Democratic Socialist Movement (CWI Nigeria)
Donald Trump’s policies, purportedly aiming to ‘Make America Great Again’, have thrown the world into turmoil. It is an ‘America First’ agenda which is characterised by protectionism, anti-immigration measures and transactional diplomacy. This is to defend the power of US capitalism, which, though still by far the strongest in the world, is in relative decline. Being the world’s biggest economy, there is likely no country which is immune to the disruptive reverberation of Trump’s policies. Of course, Nigeria, though not a major target, is also on the receiving end.
Despite his racist and anti-immigration policies, which have the potential of adversely impacting many Nigerians in the US, Trump divides opinion in Nigeria and has a fervent support base in the country. He would fill a stadium if he held a rally in Lagos. Who are the supporters of Trump in Nigeria? They include Christian fanatics, just like their counterparts in the US, who believe Trump is a symbol of Christian values.
It is also not impossible that Trump has wormed himself into the embrace of a section of Nigerians who are prompted to support Russia in its war on Ukraine by the historical, blatant hypocrisy of Western imperialism. Unlike other US and Western leaders, Trump is not antagonistic to Putin and has significantly reduced US support for Ukraine, in his purported bid to end the war.
However, emotional support for Trump by a section of Nigerians is not a shield from his arrow. To be clear, the current egregious devastation of the living standards of most Nigerians was not caused by Trump. It is a brutal consequence of the anti-poor neoliberal capitalist policies of the Bola Tinubu government, worsening the economy already in crisis. However, Trump’s policies would make a bad situation worse.
While Trump’s tariff policy exempts oil and gas, which accounts for more than 90% of Nigeria’s exports to the US, Nigeria is not immune to its reverberating effects both on the US and world economies. The increasing US trade sanctions against China, which have been escalated by the current Trump regime into a trade war, will likely reduce the global trade volumes, slow down world economic growth and, as a result, plunge down the demand for oil.
Already, Trump’s ‘Drill, baby, drill’ agenda, aimed at increasing the US domestic shale oil production and the response of OPEC by increasing production to dominate market share, has forced down the prices of crude oil. Brent crude oil dipped below $60 a barrel at one point in the second week of April, to its lowest since February 2021. The projection of the US Energy Information Administration for oil prices in 2025 is $63.88 per barrel from a prior forecast of $70.68 a barrel, citing global trade policy and higher OPEC production. An irony of an oil price fall, to sub-$60 according to oil experts, is that this may make US shale production unprofitable and thereby increase US dependence on imports for a time.
However, the 2025 budget of Nigeria is benchmarked at $75 per barrel. This means that the Tinubu government will have to borrow much more than originally projected to finance the budget deficit. This is expected in addition to deeper cuts in social spending (education, health care, etc.) and an increase in taxes to pass on the burden to the working class and middle-class people. At the same time, the government, at all levels, safeguards the avenues for looting, and the opulent lifestyle of its top functionaries.
Besides, the decline in oil prices will reduce the foreign exchange earnings and, as a result, trigger a further depreciation of the naira and its concomitant inflationary pressure on the already outrageously prohibitive costs of living and doing business. Nigeria relies on crude oil exports for 90% of its foreign exchange.
In April, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) lamented how a decline in crude oil prices presents “new dynamics for oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria.” This prompted the CBN to sell nearly $200 million to support the naira on 5 April alone. If the crisis is prolonged, it is not likely the Tinubu government will have the capacity or the willingness, because of its commitment to neoliberal economic philosophy, to sustain such an intervention.
This is especially as the situation may be compounded by a possible rise in inflation in the US because of the tariffs. Together with anti-immigration measures, this may reduce the volume of diaspora remittances – a good share of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (the US central bank) raising interest rates to fight inflation may lead to capital flow out of emerging markets like Nigeria to the US, and also necessitate the depreciation or devaluation of the naira.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has also lamented a serious implication of Trump’s 14% tariff imposed on Nigerian non-oil exports. In a statement issued on 15 April, MAN revealed that its “members who are exporters in agro-processing, chemicals and pharmaceutical, basic metal, iron and steel, non-metallic mineral products and other light industrial manufacturing rely heavily on the US for market access.” For instance, the Trump tariff could result in a loss of between N1 trillion and N2 trillion in Nigeria’s agricultural exports, which accounted for over N4.42 trillion in 2024. As a result of the fall in export revenues, according to MAN, many companies may reduce production and downsize workforces to cut costs.
Healthcare
Trump’s suspension of foreign aid programmes, for an initial duration of 90 days, to developing countries like Nigeria has already taken its toll on ordinary people, especially those on health care. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), Nigeria, along with Kenya, Lesotho, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Haiti and Ukraine – would run out of life-saving anti-retroviral (ARV) medicines in the coming months. Specifically in Nigeria, millions of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and tuberculosis patients may face a shortage of essential drugs and consumables.
Yes, the Trump administration has granted humanitarian waivers, including the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). However, the dismantling of USAID by Trump means there are no staff to process the waivers. For instance, in Nigeria, where PEPFAR reportedly accounts for close to 90% of the treatment for people living with HIV, the treatment has hit the rocks. A health worker commented: “Logistics was a constraint because most people working in the ARV clinics are under the IHVN [Institute of Human Virology, Nigeria], and not under (Nigerian) government. After Trump’s Executive order, we were told that the account had been frozen, and many of us (workers) did not get paid”. IHVN is a major partner of USAID in Nigeria on its projects on HIV and tuberculosis. About two million people in Nigeria are reportedly living with HIV.
Trump’s finger on the pulse of foreign aid has a devastating impact in countries like Nigeria because of its neocolonial character. This is worsened by the backwardness of its corrupt capitalist ruling elite. This explains the chronic underfunding of health care and other basic needs like education and provision for clean water and sanitation. At the same time, the ruling elite travels abroad, in most cases at the expense of public funds, for the health needs of themselves and their families.
Despite the agreement of the African Union at its meeting in Abuja in 2001, that member-countries should allocate at least 15% of their budget to the health sector, Nigeria has not gone beyond about 5% in its federal budget. So even by the African standard, the Nigerian ruling elite is useless and irresponsible. However, it should be stated that what is needed is both adequate funding of health care and its democratic control in order to ensure the judicious use of the funding.
How successive, irresponsible governments abandoned critical health needs is evidenced by HIV and tuberculosis funding being funded by foreign aid supports. According to a US embassy report, in 2023 alone, the US invested over US$600 million in health assistance in Nigeria. That is about 21% of Nigeria’s 2023 annual health budget. However, despite foreign aid, the funding gap for healthcare in general is majorly filled with out-of-pocket spending by whoever can pay the bill. Of course, many working people cannot afford the cost of private health care or commercialisation of critical services at public hospitals.
Resistance
In the US, working people and youth have not held arms akimbo, resigning to fate. They have begun to build resistance against the ruinous policies of Trump. Mass protests were held across 1,400 towns and cities on 5 April. The US is deeply divided but Trump’s support will weaken in the event of a sharp economic crisis, especially as he promised “good jobs and good wages” in his election campaign. Trump’s international rivals will try to blame him for the crisis when in fact it is an outcome of the competition and rivalry between all capitalist countries, especially the imperialist ones. There is a need for international working-class solidarity, in whatever form, everywhere, which opposes all capitalist elements.
However, in Nigeria what is more needed is the building of a formidable mass movement, including trade unions, to resist all anti-poor capitalist attacks, which may even be intensified because of Trump’s America First policies. The task of such a movement also includes building a working people’s party on a socialist programme. This is to wrest political power from the backward capitalist ruling elite and, based on democratic socialist planning and international working-class solidarity, to use the collective wealth of the country for the benefits of the vast majority. Such a development, in any country, especially a major one like Nigeria, would be an inspiration to the working class and poor internationally to follow that example and start to bring about socialist change throughout the entire world.
