US-Israel war on Iran fails to achieve victory

Editorial of the Socialist issue 1363

After nearly six weeks of Iran being pounded by enormous US military might, along with bombardment from Israel, the limits of this brutal force have been shown. Despite the firing of 21,000 missiles, those two imperialist powers haven’t been able to impose their will on Iran, and US president Trump felt compelled to engineer a break from the war without any of their aims being met.

The ceasefire is built on sand, as it wasn’t based on agreement on any of the issues under dispute, including whether the Israeli regime’s war on Lebanon would end. Lebanon has continued to suffer horrific military attacks with thousands killed, urban areas and whole villages destroyed, and 1.2 million people displaced.

The theocratic Iranian regime held out against the complete capitulation demanded by Trump and has survived. It still has some missile capability, its stocks of enriched uranium, and it now has more incentive than ever to develop a nuclear weapon. Also, it still has a residual network of allied militias across the region to aid its interests. In some ways, that authoritarian regime is in a strengthened position. It has taken full control of the Strait of Hormuz through which over 100 ships a day normally pass, carrying oil and other commodities. The Iranian leaders that have come to the fore under the war conditions might demand more in negotiations with the US than they thought they could achieve before the war.

The mass movement of protesters who courageously went out onto the streets of Iran just a few weeks before the war now suffer the regime’s use of the crisis to step up repression, including executions, and attempts to use the mass indignation with the assault on the Iranian nation in the interests of those at the top. While the Iranian masses have suffered thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure and increased deprivation, the religious leaders and the heads of the regime’s strongest fighting force, the Revolutionary Guard, are raking in riches from exploiting the war economy and higher oil prices. In addition they have started to charge massive tolls on the cargo ships they allow to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Media reports made clear that Trump, contrary to his bellicose and genocidal rhetoric, had become aware of the disastrous direction of the war for US interests, and desperately needed to devise a way out. Iran’s blockade of shipping and its missiles that were hitting energy installations across the region were impacting on the world economy. Domestically, Trump’s poll ratings were sinking ever further, as petrol prices rose and there was no sign of military success being achieved. The US doesn’t have an oil supply problem as it produces its own oil, but the price for US consumers is affected by world energy markets; and the US can’t escape the overall adverse impact of the war on the world economy.

US imperialism

For US imperialism, there has been a range of consequences against its interests. One of its key aims is to counter China’s influence in the Middle East and globally. However, while China has been economically threatened by the war, not least because around half of its imported oil comes from the Middle East, it has observed Trump’s administration depleting the US’s military arsenal, shifting weaponry from the Pacific to the Middle East, and showing itself to be the most destabilising factor globally. Russia, a China ally, is expected to gain up to $100 billion extra over the next year as a result of the now higher energy costs and because the US has reduced sanctions on its exports to try to mitigate rising energy prices. Overall, while the US is still the most dominant power on the planet, the war reflects and exacerbates the ongoing weakening of US imperialism relative to China and other world powers. 

The war has also seen a further deterioration in relations between the US leaders and those in Europe, who have been condemned by Trump for not proactively assisting the US-Israel war. He has made more threats to withdraw support from NATO as a consequence.

For the Gulf state elites, the war has been greatly damaging to their interests as it has removed any aura of their countries being safe for investment and tourism. They are in turmoil, caught between their relations with both the US and China (not forgetting that Iran is in China’s orbit), their dependence on US security, and the risk associated with their hosting of US military bases.

While Trump is in electoral difficulty regarding the US mid-term elections in November, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu is in an even worse predicament, facing a general election this year and a population questioning what his government’s war on Iran has achieved. He had insisted that it would bring increased security for Israel but it is clear to most Israelis that it hasn’t. Reflecting this situation, the leading capitalist opposition politicians – who all fully swung behind the war – have now turned to heavily criticising aspects of it.

Trump’s options

As Trump has come up against the limitations of firepower, and resuming all-out war would only worsen the scenario for the world economy and for his poll ratings in the US, he likely wants to limit further military intervention. However, a decision to escalate can’t be ruled out, which would be a nightmare for the Iranian population and further factors could come into play against the world economy, such as the Houthis moving to block the exit from the Red Sea, adding a second geographical blow to shipping.

For now, Trump is looking at other options, including the US navy now blocking trade from Iranian ports. This is one of Trump’s many U-turns, because last month he lifted sanctions on some of Iran’s oil exports, to aid global supply. However, Iran can still hit the world economy by threatening shipping, and as it has land borders with seven other countries there are land routes that can potentially be used to circumvent the US naval blockade. Every US military option only shows the inevitability of an eventual return to negotiations.

Meanwhile, the disruption to world oil markets has been the greatest ever and recovering from that will take years to achieve, even if Trump doesn’t pursue further war on Iran. Along with rising inflation, government borrowing costs are increasing, as also are debts. This means lower global economic growth and will accelerate the timescale towards the next recession, for which many causal factors were already building up before this latest war. FT journalist Ruchir Sharma commented: “Never has the world entered a crisis of any kind with such high deficits and debt levels” (6 April). The world’s poorest people are already bearing the worst consequences, unable to pay higher prices for food, fuel and other basic necessities. At the same time, fearing where the world economy is heading, capitalist institutions – the European Commission for example – are warning governments against spending money to help ordinary people through the price shocks. The ruling class interests involved in such policies won’t go unnoticed by workers and youth, layers of which can draw increasingly far-reaching conclusions about the class nature of society – and then can develop awareness of the central role of the working class in transforming it. There is also an impact on mass consciousness caused by the horrors of the war itself and wars such as those on Gaza and Lebanon. They further expose that the rotting capitalist system only offers a barbaric future to humanity, and they underline the necessity of a socialist alternative.