New regime in Somalia a setback for US imperialism

Somalia:

New regime a setback for US imperialism

WARLORDS WHO ruled the capital of Somalia, Mogadishu, for 15 years
have recently been driven out by a coalition of Muslim groups backing
the ‘Islamic Courts Union’.

Kevin Parslow

This has brought US imperialism’s role in the Horn of Africa into
sharp focus. The fear of the US Republican ‘neo-conservatives’ is that
the very outcome they wished to prevent in their ‘war against terror’ (ie
the emergence of a Taliban-style regime harbouring al-Qa’ida guerrillas)
is now taking place.

These fears were deepened when Hassan Dahir Aweys, a former Somali
army colonel and vice-chairman of al-Itihad (a group labled as
‘terrorist’ by Washington), was named head of the Council of the Islamic
Courts. Aweys favours an Islamic state in Somalia.

His appointment comes only days after Islamic leaders came to an
agreement with the secular interim government based in Baidoa, 200
kilometres from Mogadishu. Any fighting will stop and the Islamists will
recognise the government while the government has recognised the
"reality and existence" of the Islamic courts.

But there are still differences, particularly over the use of foreign
troops to maintain ‘peace’, which the Islamists oppose. A Swedish
cameraman was killed at a ‘peace’ rally in Mogadishu by an unknown
assailant, raising questions as to the effectiveness of the Islamists’
ability to maintain stability.

Divisions

Somalia gained independence in 1960 and was ruled from 1969 by
President Mohamed Siad Barre following the so-called ‘October
Revolution’. Popular at first, Barre proclaimed Somalia a ‘socialist’
state but capitalism and feudalism were never abolished.

In the late 1970s, Barre attempted to incorporate Ethiopian-held
‘Somali territories’ into the country. But following this failed
military adventure, he resorted to increasingly unpopular, dictatorial
methods. Trying to rule the country by divide and rule, Barre was
eventually overthrown in 1991.

But the very divisions which Barre had played on to rule made Somalia
impossible to govern. The warlords gained increasing control of
Mogadishu and central rule broke down. As a result, two internationally
unrecognised but ‘independent’ or ‘autonomous’ territories in the north,
the ‘Republic of Somaliland’ and the ‘Puntland state of Somalia’ seceded
from central control in the 1990s.

The United Nations sent in a force, led by US troops, in 1992 to
restore order but this faced growing opposition. This culminated in the
famous ‘Blackhawk Down’ incident in which two US helicopters were shot
down with numerous casualties. As a result of this humiliation for US
imperialism, President Clinton withdrew US troops the following year and
a full UN withdrawal was completed in 1995.

Imperialism allowed the warlords to rule Somalia for some time. They
extorted tributes in the ports, airfields and roads. They became
relatively wealthy and powerful in a country of extreme poverty and
deprivation. Average life expectancy is 46, while 219 in every 1,000
children die before the age of five. Somalia is amongst the poorest
nations of the world, although the internal conflicts make data
collection very difficult.

Efforts have been made by the African Union to re-establish a central
government for Somalia since 2000. Meetings took place in Kenya, where
the interim government headed by ‘President’ Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed was
established in October 2004. Members of the government began moving back
to Somalia from June 2005, although quarrels within this
‘administration’ continued. Eventually, the first assembly of the
‘parliament’ and ‘government’ took place in Baidoa in February 2006. But
the writ of this transitional ‘authority’ does not run much further than
the city limits.

Effectively, US imperialism allowed the warlords to rule Mogadishu to
prevent a radical Islamist regime coming to power in the region, which
adjoins an important sea route. But the population became tired and
angry with the warlords, their increasing wealth and power, and the lack
of stability.

Increasingly, Sharia (Islamic) law was introduced into the mayhem and
the population gave their support to the Union of Islamic Courts. They
become an increasingly political and military force in society as
businessmen began funding the Islamists in an attempt to regain
stability.

US interference

The US’s effective backing for the warlords has made them even more
hated than before. Some business leaders said they recently met US
officials in neighbouring Djibouti and said they would stop funding the
Islamists if the US stopped using the warlords as proxies. But the US
refused and now the Islamists have power in Mogadishu and are attempting
to spread their influence outside of the capital.

These recent events will not stabilise Somalia for very long.
Depending on the character of any new regime in Mogadishu, and the
balance between the Islamists and the interim government, the US may try
and intervene in its ‘war on terror’, probably not directly but possibly
through intermediaries. Already there are reports of Ethiopian troops
crossing the border ‘in support’ of the transitional government but
mainly to prevent a radical Islamist state being established over its
borders.

"This is a staggering defeat for the US strategy of counter-terrorism
by proxy," said a Horn of Africa analyst to the guardian. "It also
represents a seismic shift in Somali politics. For the first time in
many years we have a new political group that is capable of forming some
sort of administration."

However, an Islamic regime could easily become a stifling, theocratic
dictatorship oppressing any independent movements of workers and poor
people. Already the Mogadishu regime has attempted to shut down cinemas
for allowing the ‘evils of the Western world’ to be shown, including
coverage of World Cup football matches.

The US says it will not allow the ‘Talibanisation’ of Somalia,
suggesting interference of various kinds. This could return the country
to a violent cycle of instability and poverty which has plagued the
people of Somalia and this region for decades.

Capitalism and feudalism cannot develop one of the poorest regions of
the world and it will take the development of a united working-class
force to pose an alternative to the current alternative governments on
offer to the Somali people.