Steve Score, Socialist Party National Committee
The death and destruction in the Middle East resulting from the US and Israeli war on Iran has caused a tidal wave of impact around the world. The rise in oil prices along with other products of the industry, such as fertilisers and chemicals, is having and will have devastating consequences for the world economy.
Despite the huge military power of the US and the horror unleashed on the Iranian population, Trump perversely claiming it’s to help them liberate themselves, the weakness of US imperialism has been exposed. Trump has weakened the US’s past alliances such as with Europe, and strengthened its rivals, particularly China.
The Iranian regime did not collapse; assassination of leaders was ineffective. The Iranians have used their control over the Strait of Hormuz to apply a chokehold on the world economy. Their Houthi allies have threatened to do the same with Red Sea shipping. At the time of writing, uncertainty over negotiations and the ceasefire, or resumption of war, makes prediction of immediate events impossible.
But whatever happens next there are already permanent consequences. Economic instability, mass struggle to resist the consequent attempt by ruling classes to make the working class and poor pay for the crisis, and even more political volatility are inevitable.
Inflation and recession, or ‘stagflation’, is a real threat. In Britain there have already been big increases in the costs of fuel and heating oil, and more energy price rises are in the pipeline. Food and other inflation will be another twist in the cost-of-living crisis. Economic crisis will be used as further justification for government cuts and austerity.
Not everyone is feeling the pinch though. FTSE100 company chief executives have had a pay rise of 18% last year, 64% over the last three years. A new round of workers’ struggle to defend living standards will be needed. Trade union leaders should be preparing for coordinated action to fight back.
In the US, opinion polls show support for the war has dropped even further, 67% disapprove of Trump’s handling of it. We have already seen the vast multi-million ‘No Kings’ protests against Trump, and the resistance to the actions of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). There have been calls in some trade unions for a ‘general strike’ on 1 May which, while it will not have the character of a full general strike organised by the unions, can be a day of action that raises the idea of workers’ power to force change.
The fact that capitalism means imperialism and war, poverty and economic insecurity, will increasingly affect the consciousness of millions of people worldwide. We need to build a socialist alternative internationally.
